Week 9 Bet (Still running at 78%)!!!

[eejit101]

Ok losers. Get on board for once...

Cowboys -11 v Seahawks.
Cowboys/Seahawks OVER 44.5
Falcons -6.5 @ Colts.
Cheifs/Dolphins OVER 39.5
Jets/Bills UNDER 45.5
49ers -4 @ Redskins
Texans -10.5 v Browns
Bucs/Saints OVER 49.5
Bengals +1.5 @ Titans
Broncos +7.5 @ Raiders (oh yeah, i said it)
Rams/Cardinals OVER 41
Giants/Pats UNDER 51
Packers/Chargers OVER 50.5
Steelers -3 v Ravens
Eagles -7.5 v Bears.

Side Bet - Chargers money line vs Packers. 5 to 1. Tempting


15 bets and a side bet.

Im predicting 13-2.

Booooya

[ScareCrowAKA]

1 ***NFL Football Lines*** Cleveland Browns v Houston Texans Nov 06, 2011 12:00 Houston Texans To Win

2 ***NHL Hockey*** Anaheim Ducks v Detroit Red Wings Nov 05, 2011 17:05 Detroit Red Wings -1½

3 **College Football Lines** LSU v Alabama Tonight LSU +5

4 ***NFL Football Lines*** Tampa Bay Buccaneers v New Orleans Saints Nov 06, 2011 12:00 New Orleans Saints -8

5 ***NFL Football Lines*** Seattle Seahawks v Dallas Cowboys Nov 06, 2011 12:00 Seattle Seahawks +11

6 ***NFL Football Lines*** St Louis Rams v Arizona Cardinals Nov 06, 2011 15:15 Game Total OVER 41

7 ***NFL Football Lines*** Green Bay Packers v San Diego Chargers Nov 06, 2011 15:15 Green Bay Packers -5½

[eejit101]

LSU +5? Weird line!

[ScareCrowAKA]

i know... must have been massive betting on Alabama

[eejit101]

And wrongly!

I bet on the under. Under 41. Love it.

[ScareCrowAKA]

Ya, I should have went w them straight up... even though, really from watching the game Alabama should have won,

I watched it at the Casino, playing 1 2 NL, first time playing in like 2 months, bougt in for 180, up to 230, back down to 150... then got busted when I shoved w K8c on a 8s 5c 4s flop... shoved all in over the top of a raise of a guy i put on a flush draw and 2 overs (one maybe being a king), and a call of that guys raise, some drunk guy that was a aggressive player... he ended up having 56os

...7 came on the turn and Q on the river... neither a spade

should have folded, but I guess it could have been the right play... thought the drunk guy was gonna fold, which would have put me at 50/50 to win at somewhere around 2.5 to 1


... Lsu straight up and the under parlayed would have been a payoff of like 5 to 5.5 to 1

[eejit101]

Looking at your hand....

You - K8c

Raiser - xx

Villain - 56

Your issue is here of value to win the hand. If you are against... say lets look perspectively at a raised pot at AT spades from the guy who folds. And villain still after the call is disguising his hand.

You have top pair, good kicker. Vs a random range of Atspades (likely hand). or similar. You are 48% to win the pot vs his hand, and 56 (if you can say he has that, but you cant).

In this spot id be feeling good about being ahead of the original raiser, and stregnth would be able to get him out.

(what i dont agree with is that you can put him on a king, thats impossible, you can envision high cards, but you cant be sure).

If the drunk caller who wins the pot has any hand such as A8, 88,55,44,85,84,54,67,,57,47,56,46. You are behind here to the table as a whole if both are in the pot.

It depends as to how much is in the pot as to your play, however, shoving at 1/2 NL, lets say its popped preflop to 6, putting 21 int he pot, then the raiser leads out for 20ish, with a call thats 61 in the pot and you are shoving over for 120ish more, thats a huge raise. IMO there im not putting you on a set, maybe slight overpair (Tens ish), maybe A8/K8, and more unlikely still a flush draw. If the guy who has 56 is deciding after the other guy has folded, then he is as of this point 48.5% to win the pot, and his call should be instant. Even if you have a flush draw, or overpair, or anything similar, he is at WORST a coin flip to win here, maybe ahead.

So i dont like your shove. What i prefer is to flat call on the flop, reevaluate the turn. Raising here to say 75, leaves u nothing back, so you are committed, and also giving huge odds for them to call and chase you down.

so, retroprectively, in this position, depending on stacks, image, blinds, your position, and everything else (which there is no information on). I can honestly lay this down on the flop, or call and evaluate the turn.

If the turn is the 7 as it was, then depending on how the drunk guys playing, you can easily shove over here and lose to his straight, that i dont mind at all, depending on his image, but maybe he isnt as bad as you think and knew the odds, as working it all out, he was about 44% vs your range to win the hand, and getting odds of way better than that.

So, to summarise, fold K8, it sucks, as this happens. If you have called, then call the flop and fold the turn depending on action. But under no circumstances decide top pair good kicker is anything more than an attempt to buy the pot here and now, as generally, youd lose if you did that every time.

[ScareCrowAKA]

ya, He was a decent player, fearless, in 400$ pots w 72os and bluffing people out... that was before he was drunk

my image was pretty tight, was there 2.5 hours and showed KK, A9, A10, (flopped 2 pair each time) made about 5-10 post flop folds.

it pretty much went... 4 people limp for 2$, flop chk chk chk to the drunk guy, 10$. me call 10$. flush draw kid 40$ drunk guy calls, me shove 135$... kid calls, drunk guy calls

... at first I thought the kid was making a play at the drunk guy, which he had done previously w 2nd pair, ace high, a couple times... and that he had put me on the flush draw based on my chk call

but when he called my all in, that wasnt the case obviously
and I guess the drunk guy was priced in

if I was them, my image, I would have put myself on something like 2 pair, pair and a flush draw, something like that, cuz I had pretty much played it the same way on both my 2 pair flops previously and showed both times

but hey and who knows, maybe the kid had a set or something, whatever

[eejit101]

True. Looking at that I can fold the reraise there every time. Your not ahead of anything IMO. Other guy had overpaid. Should have asked him when u left.

[ScareCrowAKA]

lol... i need to win this bet today now... 20 bucks to win like 2k

[eejit101]

Ok losers. Get on board for once...

Cowboys -11 v Seahawks. WIN
Cowboys/Seahawks OVER 44.5 LOSE
Falcons -6.5 @ Colts. WIN
Cheifs/Dolphins OVER 39.5 LOSE
Jets/Bills UNDER 45.5 WIN
49ers -4 @ Redskins WIN
Texans -10.5 v Browns WIN
Bucs/Saints OVER 49.5 LOSE
Bengals +1.5 @ Titans WIN
Broncos +7.5 @ Raiders (oh yeah, i said it) WIN WIN WIN WIN
Rams/Cardinals OVER 41 LOSE
Giants/Pats UNDER 51 WIN
Packers/Chargers OVER 50.5 WIN
Steelers -3 v Ravens
Eagles -7.5 v Bears.

Side Bet - Chargers money line vs Packers. 5 to 1. Tempting


Booooya

Story so far.

Not that good.

[eejit101]

9-4 with 2 games to go. Again. GOOD!

[ScareCrowAKA]

if u lose one win one of the last 2 games... 57% ROI

[eejit101]

Exactly! I should push the last two. To be fair i want 2/2.

And ive never had a losing week. You guys suck for not being rich.

[ScareCrowAKA]

u do about 15 picks a wk, 9 wks... I could afford maybe 10$ on each pick...

if u are rocking lets say 70-75% after this wk, I could be up... 850-950$ or so
...100$ a wk

that aint rich... thats like a fulltime job at 2.50 a hr, .lol

and thats not even including all the dumb *** fees I have to pay to withdraw the shlt...

which would be like 45$, if I make 1 withdraw a month

I should go up to the sports bar and find a bookie, but i dont really wanna deal w people like that, maybe I should move to detroit, and make wkly trips over to canada

[eejit101]

Yes. BUT

Thats $100 a week you didnt have before....

And im not suggesting you do $10 per pick.

Im suggest 5 or 10 $10 parlays. From my maths, youd generally hit 1 or two of them. Which is ALOT more.

[ScareCrowAKA]

ok, ya i guess 10 6game 10$ parlays would be 100$ risked around 500-550$ won

[eejit101]

Lets look at it logically.

I on average pick 15 games. The worst ive gone so far is 10-5 i believe. Maybe one week of 8-6.

So, we can conclude, the way I bet any way...

We take 1 x parlay of 12 teams @ $1 to win $1gazillion.
2 x 10 teams @ $5 to win $1bazillion.

Then sensible bets.

3 x 7 team parlays (including my picks of the week which generally do well) @ $5 each.

3 x 6 team parlays @ $5 each.

5 x 5 team parlays @ $10 each.

General basis is even money. For a $10 bet...

So the 5 teamers will win $320
6 teamers win $640
7 Teamers win $1280
10 teamers win $11k
12 teamers win $44k

This is sick. As ive gone 14-1 this season before. Maybe i should read what i just wrote and bet accordingly...

[ScareCrowAKA]

ya, that 14-1 wk was the payoff wk... lol, I dont like the chances of that happening again

but I come up with this... Maximum Payout...

10 parlays 10$ 10 games each, all games around -110

each payout comes to around 7000$

going 14-1 you could have easily had all 10 win since you had a winning % of 93%

so we will say we got lucky and only lost 1 out of 10 parlays if we evenly spread the pick as much as we could

7k x 9 = 63k... this seem right??? ... and yes, GODDAMN! lol

and with a winning % overall of 80% or so... All the other weeks cumulative at worst you would break even, if u got unlucky... with a total of 900$ risked the entire season

Im pretty sure if I had done that, The book would tell me to F off and go count my $ in the bank of Candyland

[eejit101]

I know. My problem is i dont have the online funds to bet on them.

Most weeks i dont bet. The few i do i do some parlays at the high street william hill bookmakers we have here. 5 or 6 teams for £5 bet. Won the last 2 weeks, but not huge amounts.

And yeah, running at 79% currently. Thats a damn good percentage for this i think. Or am i wrong?

[ScareCrowAKA]

79% rate is a insane awesome run over 9 wks... ive seen people up thousands at the end of the season w 56% win rates...

but take it for what it is... its a hell of a stat, but what does it really get u if u dont have the funds to bet that much

the only thing that matters really is ROI%... and generally speaking, anything over 4% (the inflation rate) is considered decent...

[eejit101]

Meh, i know. I was 72% last season. Lets do week 10!!!