Week 9 Bet (Still running at 78%)!!!

[ScareCrowAKA]

i know... must have been massive betting on Alabama

[eejit101]

And wrongly!

I bet on the under. Under 41. Love it.

[ScareCrowAKA]

Ya, I should have went w them straight up... even though, really from watching the game Alabama should have won,

I watched it at the Casino, playing 1 2 NL, first time playing in like 2 months, bougt in for 180, up to 230, back down to 150... then got busted when I shoved w K8c on a 8s 5c 4s flop... shoved all in over the top of a raise of a guy i put on a flush draw and 2 overs (one maybe being a king), and a call of that guys raise, some drunk guy that was a aggressive player... he ended up having 56os

...7 came on the turn and Q on the river... neither a spade

should have folded, but I guess it could have been the right play... thought the drunk guy was gonna fold, which would have put me at 50/50 to win at somewhere around 2.5 to 1


... Lsu straight up and the under parlayed would have been a payoff of like 5 to 5.5 to 1

[eejit101]

Looking at your hand....

You - K8c

Raiser - xx

Villain - 56

Your issue is here of value to win the hand. If you are against... say lets look perspectively at a raised pot at AT spades from the guy who folds. And villain still after the call is disguising his hand.

You have top pair, good kicker. Vs a random range of Atspades (likely hand). or similar. You are 48% to win the pot vs his hand, and 56 (if you can say he has that, but you cant).

In this spot id be feeling good about being ahead of the original raiser, and stregnth would be able to get him out.

(what i dont agree with is that you can put him on a king, thats impossible, you can envision high cards, but you cant be sure).

If the drunk caller who wins the pot has any hand such as A8, 88,55,44,85,84,54,67,,57,47,56,46. You are behind here to the table as a whole if both are in the pot.

It depends as to how much is in the pot as to your play, however, shoving at 1/2 NL, lets say its popped preflop to 6, putting 21 int he pot, then the raiser leads out for 20ish, with a call thats 61 in the pot and you are shoving over for 120ish more, thats a huge raise. IMO there im not putting you on a set, maybe slight overpair (Tens ish), maybe A8/K8, and more unlikely still a flush draw. If the guy who has 56 is deciding after the other guy has folded, then he is as of this point 48.5% to win the pot, and his call should be instant. Even if you have a flush draw, or overpair, or anything similar, he is at WORST a coin flip to win here, maybe ahead.

So i dont like your shove. What i prefer is to flat call on the flop, reevaluate the turn. Raising here to say 75, leaves u nothing back, so you are committed, and also giving huge odds for them to call and chase you down.

so, retroprectively, in this position, depending on stacks, image, blinds, your position, and everything else (which there is no information on). I can honestly lay this down on the flop, or call and evaluate the turn.

If the turn is the 7 as it was, then depending on how the drunk guys playing, you can easily shove over here and lose to his straight, that i dont mind at all, depending on his image, but maybe he isnt as bad as you think and knew the odds, as working it all out, he was about 44% vs your range to win the hand, and getting odds of way better than that.

So, to summarise, fold K8, it sucks, as this happens. If you have called, then call the flop and fold the turn depending on action. But under no circumstances decide top pair good kicker is anything more than an attempt to buy the pot here and now, as generally, youd lose if you did that every time.

[ScareCrowAKA]

ya, He was a decent player, fearless, in 400$ pots w 72os and bluffing people out... that was before he was drunk

my image was pretty tight, was there 2.5 hours and showed KK, A9, A10, (flopped 2 pair each time) made about 5-10 post flop folds.

it pretty much went... 4 people limp for 2$, flop chk chk chk to the drunk guy, 10$. me call 10$. flush draw kid 40$ drunk guy calls, me shove 135$... kid calls, drunk guy calls

... at first I thought the kid was making a play at the drunk guy, which he had done previously w 2nd pair, ace high, a couple times... and that he had put me on the flush draw based on my chk call

but when he called my all in, that wasnt the case obviously
and I guess the drunk guy was priced in

if I was them, my image, I would have put myself on something like 2 pair, pair and a flush draw, something like that, cuz I had pretty much played it the same way on both my 2 pair flops previously and showed both times

but hey and who knows, maybe the kid had a set or something, whatever

[eejit101]

True. Looking at that I can fold the reraise there every time. Your not ahead of anything IMO. Other guy had overpaid. Should have asked him when u left.

[ScareCrowAKA]

lol... i need to win this bet today now... 20 bucks to win like 2k