Anyone Follow Horse Racing?

[klinkman]

Does anyone follow horse racing?

If you do, who do you think is the best 3 year old next to Big Brown? If there is any interest I might post my opinions on some of them.

[klinkman]

Gio Ponti

Top Performances: 1st in the West Virginia Derby[G2], 1st in the Hill Prince Stakes[Not Rated]

Notable Misfires: 8th in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf [not graded]

He's won all of his races except the Breeder's Cup race last year, and his nose win over Court Vision in the West Virgina Derby was impressive. He's strictly a turf horse, but as several of the major races coming up are on turf, he can be expected to be a major player. He might fold to a tougher test than Court Vision, but I think he might be up for it.

He's running this evening in the Del Mar Derby, where he is the morning line favorite. This race might show if he has what it takes to run in the Breeder's Cup Mile.

[klinkman]

Court Vision

Top Performances: 2nd in the West Virginia Derby[G1], 3rd in the Wood Memorial[G1], 3rd in the Fountain of Youth[G2], 1st in the Remsen Stakes[G2], 1st in the Iroquois Stakes[G3]

Notable Misfires: 6th in the Travers[G1], 13th in the Kentucky Derby[G1]

Court Vision has proven to be a decent turf horse, but has not been able to run with the best on dirt, as his misfires have shown. Hopefully he can compete in the turf races coming up and make a showing has he has demonstrated to be capable of it.

[Lilred36]

my goodness are you connected, lol.

[klinkman]

Gio Ponti could not catch Madeo in the Del Mar Derby, he lost a lot of ground going 5 wide around the far turn, and Madeo was expertly ridden around the rail. An impressive win for Madeo, but where does Gio Ponti head now?

[klinkman]

Ready's Echo failed to fire in todays Saranac Stakes, finishing a distant 4th. It's hard to know where he'd be destined to go now, but I suspect a starter allowance of some sort would be in order.

Race page and video here:
http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=34621

[klinkman]

Anak Nakal got up in the final strides to take it from Acai. Smooth Air was outrun by Acai in the stretch and finished third. The finish is a thriller, even though it meant that I fail at picking horses. I guess Anak Nakal is capable of running after all.

Race Video and results here: http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?id=34636&type=news

[klinkman]

In several of my posts I mention "Polytrack", but I realized that someone reading might not know what it is, so I will attempt to explain.

Polytrack is actually a brand name for a type of synthetic all-weather track used at some racetracks around the country. It is often used to mean any type of synthetic track however, and that is how I used it previously. Different brands have different formulas, but it is generally made up of sand, synthetic fibers and recycled rubber coated in wax. It requires an extensive drainage system as exposure to water over a long period of time may cause the wax to break down.

This drainage system provides it with a big advantage over traditional dirt, it allows races to be ran over a dry track faster than with dirt. Horsemen and Handicappers alike prefer fast tracks to muddy or sloppy tracks. Another major advantage of polytrack is that major injuries (such as what happened to Eight Belles in the Kentucky Derby) seem to occur far less often, as running over the track seems to put less stress on the horses legs. Furthermore, the track doesn't frost over, so there is no need for it to thaw before races can be conducted on it.

However there are some disadvantages. The major one is that horses who need the hardness of dirt to be able to run their fastest seem to lose some of their kick on the surface, and don't run as well. For example, Harlem Rocker finished 4th against a lackluster field in his only start on a synthetic surface. Furthermore, some trainers claim that minor injuries occur more often on synthetic surfaces.

With California mandating that racetracks in the state switch to synthetic tracks, Polytrack and the ilk are here to stay. Some horses don't take to it, but many do. When betting on a race on a synthetic surface, look for horses that run well anywhere, horses that do well on turf, and horses who are just plain fast.

[nodepositneeded]

Very interesting!

[Lilred36]

you don't actually tpe all these do you? I assume you copy it huh.

[klinkman]

you don't actually tpe all these do you? I assume you copy it huh.

Nope, I typed that all out. If I'm going to copy something I'll post a link to a source.

[Pokerkitty6]

I LOVE THE HORSES!!!! A little too much...
My favorite is CURLIN, horse of the year.
I live in Ocala, horse capital of the world.

[klinkman]

I LOVE THE HORSES!!!! A little too much...
My favorite is CURLIN, horse of the year.
I live in Ocala, horse capital of the world.

Curlin is an extemely talented horse, he might well be the most talent horse I will ever get to see run. It's a shame that many top horses retire before they come back as four year olds, I would love to see a Curlin vs Street Sense race, or Hard Spun vs them at a Mile. Have you seen any of the top horses this year living in Ocala? If you have, do you have any good stories?

[klinkman]

Indian Blessing

Top Performances: 1st in the Test Stakes [G1] 1st in the Prioress Stakes[G1] 2nd in the Acorn Stakes[G1] 2nd in the Fair Grounds Oaks[G2] 1st in the Silverbulletday Stakes[G3] 1st in the Santa Ynez Stakes[G2] 1st in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies[G1] 1st in the Frizette Stakes[G1]

Notable Misfires: None to speak of.

Yes she's that impressive. Never worse than second in her career, Indian Blessing has proven to be the best 3 year old sprinter right now. Pointed at the Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, she has been dominating in all of her efforts, and in my opinion, will continue to dominate. I can only hope that she continues to run as a 4 year old and older, and continue to dominate races in the future.

[Lilred36]

well heck of a typing job Klink you really like racing,I like racing to just that I'm a donk at that to,but I love to bet em.

[Pokerkitty6]

I haven't really seen alot of the top horses, but I have sat with some of the owners at the bar. It amazes me that some of the owners do not even know their horse will be scrated until post time. Good Luck with the Breeder's Cup October 25th!!!!!

[klinkman]

The finish to this race is amazing, I've never seen anything like it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFMzs...eature=related

[nodepositneeded]

What a wild one!

[klinkman]

Free Equibase Past Performances Here:http://www.equibase.com/rotw/fullpp.pdf

Stungbythestorm (4 starts, 1 win, 1 2nd, 2 3rds)
I really think he's outclassed here, but if he stays at 20-1 he might have some value. His speed figures for his previous races make it seem like he has a chance, but the question is if the has the class to run here
Verdict: Exotics Contender

My Pal Charlie (10 starts, 2 wins, 2 2nds)
Speed figures can be misleading-they would have you think that Charlie's 5th place in the West Virginia Derby was better than Macho Again's win in the Jim Dandy, but that is hardly the case. That being said, I'm not convinced that he has no chance here. Both of his 2nds were to Pyro when Pyro was at his best. I can't see him winning this race, but a rally for 3rd is not out of the question.
Verdict: Exotics Contender

Macho Again(12 starts, 3 wins, 2 2nds)
A worthy favorite, Macho Again has run well in all of his starts, and that includes the Travers where he had no room to run, clipped heels and faded to 8th. It's hard to bet against him, even though he might not be fit after clipping heels in the Travers. If he drops to about 3-1, I'd give him a bet but if he gets bet down, lay off
Verdict: Win Contender

Mambo Meister (11 starts, 3 wins, 1 2nd, 4 3rds)
He ran poorly in the slop in his last outing, but ran well in his last 3 starts. However the fields were weak and the times weren't terribly impressive. Probably the boldest toss I'll make, but I can't see him getting there
Verdict: Toss

King Darius (8 starts, 1 win, 1 2nd, 1 3rd)
Finally an easy call. He's been well beaten by some of the weaker starters in this field. No chance.
Verdict: Toss

Numismatist (10 starts, 2 wins, 2 2nds, 4 3rds)
He ran really well in the Prelude, which is the prep for this race at Louisiana Downs. However, that race was far better than his previous starts, and his other runs just won't be good enough to hit the board here. I fully expect him to bounce and not fire this race
Verdict: Toss

Star Production (13 starts, 4 wins, 4 2nds, 1 3rd)
He held off Numismatist in the Prelude to win by a nose, proving to me at least that he has the class to compete with this field, despite going from restricted stakes to a big Grade 2 race. I'm not sure that he can beat Macho Again, but then again, I'm not sure he can't either.
Verdict: Win Contender

Real Appeal (10 starts, 3 wins, 2 3rds)
His late running style leaves him almost no chance to win here, but his run to hit the board in the West Virginia Derby was at least somewhat impressive. The race wasn't that much more of an effort than his last races, so bounce is less likely to be a factor in my opinion.
Verdict: Exotics Contender

Golden Yank (10 Starts, 3 wins, 2 2nds, 2 3rds)
Another closer who seems like he hasn't actually won a race in forever, he closed to 3rd in the prelude, missing by only a head. He might close to his the board here, but I cant see him catching Macho Again or Star Production
Verdict: Exotics Contender

Forest Command (3 Starts, 2 wins, 1 2nd)
In the only race he's lost he missed by only a head. He's a son of Monarchos, a Kentucky Derby winner, so he might have the class to run here. His speed figures have been impressive, but his opponents have been fairly weak. But all signs seem to point to him having a chance to win this race.
Verdict: Win Contender.

[klinkman]

My analysis was fairly close with one major caveat-My Pal Charlie certainly had it in him to win the race. Macho Again and Forest Command finished 2nd and 3rd respectively. All of my tosses were correct, and my only miss was Star Production, who dropped back to last.

Race Page and Video if you're interested: http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=34985

[Lilred36]

I would love to go to the track with you klink, your system is probally better than the best name heh.