River Move Too Risky??

[eejit101]

Full Tilt Poker Game #22753414270: $24 + $2 Rush Tournament (175743067), Table 30 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:34:47 ET - 2010/08/01
Seat 1: HANTS COUNTY AA (2,025)
Seat 2: eejit101 (6,615)
Seat 3: Ermolov (750)
Seat 4: FJMC69 (2,735)
Seat 5: Lopes 0909 (1,715)
Seat 6: NicoM23 (7,505)
Seat 7: MikeBucks (2,295)
Seat 8: poker_yann (1,490)
Seat 9: fl0pthet0p (6,010)
eejit101 posts the small blind of 50
Ermolov posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to eejit101 [6d 6h]
FJMC69 has 8 seconds left to act
FJMC69 calls 100
Lopes 0909 has 8 seconds left to act
Lopes 0909 folds
NicoM23 folds
MikeBucks folds
poker_yann folds
fl0pthet0p raises to 300
HANTS COUNTY AA folds
eejit101 calls 250
Ermolov folds
FJMC69 calls 200
*** FLOP *** [6c Ts As]
eejit101 checks
FJMC69 checks
fl0pthet0p checks
*** TURN *** [6c Ts As] [Kd]
eejit101 bets 715
FJMC69 folds
fl0pthet0p calls 715
*** RIVER *** [6c Ts As Kd] [Ad]
eejit101 checks
fl0pthet0p bets 1,000
eejit101 raises to 5,600, and is all in

Spoiler

fl0pthet0p calls 3,995, and is all in
Uncalled bet of 605 returned to eejit101
*** SHOW DOWN ***
eejit101 shows [6d 6h] a full house, Sixes full of Aces
fl0pthet0p mucks
eejit101 wins the pot (12,420) with a full house, Sixes full of Aces
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 12,420 | Rake 0
Board: [6c Ts As Kd Ad]
Seat 1: HANTS COUNTY AA (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: eejit101 (small blind) showed [6d 6h] and won (12,420) with a full house, Sixes full of Aces
Seat 3: Ermolov (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: FJMC69 folded on the Turn
Seat 5: Lopes 0909 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: NicoM23 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: MikeBucks didn't bet (folded)
Seat 8: poker_yann didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: fl0pthet0p mucked [3c Ac] - three of a kind, Aces

[eejit101]

Oh yeah, no reads, as its a rush MTT. My thinking was with the betting he either had the straight, or tripped his ace, and I hoped to hell not boated it. This a -EV play in the long run, or in this style of game is this the move?

Please answer before clicking spoiler

[klinkman]

I think I would have bet/called the river rather than check-raise all in there. I think you get more value out of the lower end of his range there that way (since I think hands like K10 are in his range going to the river and he almost certainly checks back with those)

[targetguy1]

weak ace all the way. he doesnt just call on the turn with with st8 with flush draw out there. ace on the river makes even more clear he has a weak ace. he was on the button if i read that clear so he checks on the flop was a bad move imo given he raised preflop and had postion. in the long run given u had the full house chances are u raise on the turn if he leads out given u smooth call his flop bet which i think he then could of got away from the hand but thats not how the hand played out.

overall i dont see anything wrong with the way u played it. river card was a blessing for u

[targetguy1]

the ? what place did u donk out in

[kingsnthahole]

First off, i would have played this hand completely different after the flop. With a flop of As Ts 6, you are GUARANTEED action with this hand and probably 50-50 for a re-raise. Bet out for 2/3 the pot and probably the guy who limped in with his Ax(maybe a strong ace AQ, AJ) is either going to flat call or reraise you, in which case you shove. also, why would you want to let 2 people draw to multiple made hands in the same hand??? 2 spades on board, and 2 face cards pop off on the flop...and you check? If the table is loose aggressive, I can understand a check here, but you've got a big hand, BET HERE!!! I've seen way too many people call here with QJsuited, especially on full tilt. You lucked out with the river and it probably also made you alot richer. Haven't looked at the spoiler yet...

[kingsnthahole]

gotta love donkeys with the weak ace, what limit is this hand played at?

[eejit101]

the ? what place did u donk out in

Technically 2nd, but I made a deal 4handed to chop the pot

And I think that I could have maybe just flat called on the river, but then again, the thinking I was using was that I can get paid off nearly any ace and straight, and figured I was ahead of a big range here. Went on to win it kinda so thats good!

[NDN]

Good use of the spoiler tag.

[eejit101]

Took me long enough to get you to add the damn thing!

[Borgouise]

I think it is a +EV play, but I question whether or not it is the highest +EV play. A lack of images hurt my argument, but players like you or me are going to get more action by leading out there, and facing a push more often than not from a weak ace.

But, still a +EV play.

Note: my argument is for deeper stacked situations.

[eejit101]

I still think the check on the river is ballsy, as even someone with 72 is gonna have a stab at the pot.

[ffcowboy76]

Having play a ton of rush this could be quad A's all the way down to KTo. The problem with rush is a lot of players will slowroll trips or better knowing they will get action. I'm mixed on the river play becuase it could be so many different hands. The only hands that worry you are TT, KK, AA, and AK. I think you are roughly 70/30 to win against an average player.

How many were left and how far to the money? Where would a double put you vs the field?

[eejit101]

about 100 more to go, 27 paid, this puts me in 2nd place if i win it.

[ffcowboy76]

With that information it wasn't as risky of a play. By doubling you almost guarantee a good finish. If you lose you are out and start another. I don't see any flaw in you play based on the above answers.

[IamRude]

I know this is kind of old, but it would be cool to startup this section of the forum. I really like doing hand analysis.

This play is not risky because:

1. If he had an Ace he would have bet flop or turn because of flush and straight possibilities

2. You rivered a full house. If you put him on a big hand, you most likely have him beat. (he could have the straight, or chasing a busted flush.

[eejit101]

Hi.

1 - He has the Ace and i figured he did, was worried more about the boat.

2 - Yes i did, but he can easily have done the same. And if i put him on a big hand, then surely I am beat?

[ffcowboy76]

This play is not risky because:

1. If he had an Ace he would have bet flop or turn because of flush and straight possibilities

Having played many thousands of hands of Rush Poker I can honestly say that is a 100% wrong statement. I've watched many different players limp in pre, check flops, and otherwise play hands 100% backwards. In rush you have basically no reads so it allows you to play hands in different manners to make many chips.

[IamRude]

Having played many thousands of hands of Rush Poker I can honestly say that is a 100% wrong statement. I've watched many different players limp in pre, check flops, and otherwise play hands 100% backwards. In rush you have basically no reads so it allows you to play hands in different manners to make many chips.

but wouldnt you say checking with aces on a flush drawing board is -eV?
regardless of reads

[IamRude]

yes rush allows you to play differently because there is limited history with a player, but checking with aces on a drawing board will not make you many chips in the long run.

[eejit101]

Depends how you play. I can get people to bluff all in on missed draws.