You are "chip leader in a tournament. You have (Q-Spades) (J-Spades) and the flop is (K-Spades) (7-Spades) (2-Hearts). The pot is 1000 and your opponent makes carpet with 2000. You think it beats your hand, but you have 9 outs to win with a color. Follow up
The decision depends
full of pot odds. "The financial rating of the pot you have. What you end up with nothing or with a color does not just psychology of mathematics. To determine the pot odds, we only know two facts: the first is our investment and the second the sum total of the pot. Here is our investment in 2000 to keep the rug in our enemy, and the pot total will be 5000 (the 1000 already in the pot, the 2,000 of our adversary and our 2000 call).
The pot odds are calculated using this simple calculation:
Pot Odds = ( "Our investment: The sum total of the pot) x 100%
So for example here, pot odds = 2000 / 5000 = 40%
So our "pot odds" here are 40%, meaning that we need 40% chance to have good "odds" to follow. You will recall the article on the "outs" as the chance to get a color (9 outs) is 36%. So we do not have good pot odds to follow, and we should sleep.
The pot odds are calculated by a simple calculation, and they tell you the minimum chance you need to make the correct call is to win the hand.
In this example, be faced with a single call a carpet and knowing exactly outs, pot odds we give a complete answer. The situation can sometimes be a bit more complex.
1) There may be other outs
Look at an example where we have (A-Spades) (K-Spades) and the flop is (10-Spades) (8-Spades) (2-Hearts). We know that on the flush draw gives us 9 outs, but it is possible that we have two cards higher than our opponent, and the Ace or King make us win. If we remain strict, you should only count some outs, but you can sometimes extend them if the calculation shows that you are limited to follow. Our chance to make the best hand with 9 outs is 36%, but there may be greater than 6 cards as outs, so our "odds" might be 55%. If the pot odds that we were again 40%, these other possibilities, these "extra outs would certainly warrant a call.
2) The flush draw backdoor
Suppose you have (A-Spades) (10-Spades), and the flop gives (9-Spades) (5-Hearts) (2-Hearts). Your opponent makes carpet, and you have 3 outs of your cards over (this would be a good assumption, and that would mean he has A9, the jacks, queens or kings). You might also affect two consecutive spikes to reach the nuts, and a flush draw, backdoor you can add another 5% chance of winning. This makes some difference, and makes your chance of 12% to 17%.
3) The draw result backdoor
The draw result backdoor, got the last two cards varies depending on the print you expect, here are some examples.
A hunting after the draw at both ends - it's the only printing result backdoor seriously you have such a J10 flop 932. You can reach QK, Q8 or 87 more. For this you can add 5%.
A hunting after the draw twice belly - let's say you have a Q10 flop 932. You can reach J8 or JK to win and it gives you 3% chance.
A hunting after the draw in the belly - that's where you have a chance to win. Having AK with a flop of 10-3-2 means that only a Lady and Jack will give you a suite. This is 1% chance.
4) There may be more updates coming
Normally, your opponent will not carpet flop. When there are always chips to bet, the pot odds you get up only to see the next card. To calculate your chance of hitting the winning card, you can count only one card and then all probabilities are halved.
However, the situation may improve for you. If your opponent is near from carpet, you should think it will do so at the next card.
Then you can base your calculation on the next two cards with your opponent betting all his chips.
Example: You have (A-Spades) (K-Spades), the flop gives (Q-Spades) (9-Spades) (2-Hearts), and your opponent bets 1000 in the pot of 2000 and leaves with 1500 behind. The calculation that I would do is to assume that your opponent will build its 1,500 remaining on the turn, bringing its investment in 2500. The total pot will be 7000 (2000 in the pot, the 2500 total bet of your opponent and call your potential 2500).
So your pot odds are 2500/7000 X 100%, which is 35.7%. This is lower than the 36% chance that you have to touch the nut flush then you should follow.
Future size of the pot
If carpets are high, and there is no possibility that your opponent goes to carpet, you can use something I call the future size of the pot. It assumes that the implementation of the turn your opponent will be the same size as the flop. Thus, if a bet half the pot on the flop, assume that it will build half of the pot on the turn.
Example: you have the same hand, (A-Spades) (K-Spades) on the flop (Q-Spades) (9-Spades) (2-Hearts), with a pot of 2000. Your opponent bets 1000 and you, all 2, still full of chips behind.
Calculations
Suppose that the bet on the turn will also half the pot. In turn, the pot will be 4000 (2000 already in the pot, putting your opponent in 1000 on the flop and your call 1000). Thus, we assume that our opponent in 2000 will build on the turn. This brings your total investment in 3000 (1000 of call on the flop and 2000 call on the turn), and the total pot is 8000 (2000 already committed + 2000 + 4000-flop on the turn). This means that the pot odds that you will think of 3000/8000 X 100%, which corresponds to 37.5%. With the potential for creating superior maps outs, it warrants a call.
I do not know what you think but it can really help beginners take such decisions when they are facing such a dilemma!