Come on then - If you dont need advice - Analyze this.

[eejit101]

This is a hand from the only game ive played in about 4 days, another clue as to why i dont win every game.

Thought on preflop and flop moves if you care to be so kind.

Hand#190454BB8A002689 - $3,000 GUARANTEED BOUNTY! T5553034 -- Table 22 -- $20/$100/$200 NL Hold'em -- 2009/06/22 - 04:47:59
Seat 1: Gnat***1 ($10,564 in chips)
Seat 2: $AAA***2 ($6,928 in chips) DEALER
Seat 3: capi***3 ($4,730 in chips)
Seat 4: KickItAmish ($9,960 in chips)
Seat 5: Ervi***5 ($2,390 in chips)
Seat 6: bank***6 ($4,893 in chips)
Seat 7: norw***7 ($6,010 in chips)
Seat 8: spoi***8 ($19,498 in chips)
Seat 9: * ST***9 ($3,975 in chips)
Seat 10: Side***10 ($16,392 in chips)
GnatButter posts ante of 20
$AAALANE$ posts ante of 20
capinkiller posts ante of 20
KickItAmish posts ante of 20
Ervin T posts ante of 20
bankroll08 posts ante of 20
norwoodsteel posts ante of 20
spoiled posts ante of 20
* STEELERS * posts ante of 20
Sidecar posts ante of 20
KickItAmish: posts small blind 100
Ervi***5: posts big blind 200
Dealt to KickItAmish [Ad,As]
bank***6: raises to 900
norw***7: folds
spoi***8: calls 900
* ST***9: folds
Side***10: folds
Gnat***1: folds
$AAA***2: folds
capi***3: folds
KickItAmish: calls 800
Ervi***5: folds
*** FLOP *** [2s,9c,2d]
KickItAmish: checks
bank***6: is all in 3973.0000
spoi***8: calls 3,973
KickItAmish: is all in 9040.0000

Spoiler

spoi***8: calls 5,067
KickItAmish: shows [Ad As]
bank***6: shows [3h 3s]
spoi***8: shows [Qc Qh]
*** TURN *** [6s]
*** RIVER *** [Qd]
***SHOW DOWN***
spoi***8: wins 10,134 with Full House, Queens full of Deuces
***SHOW DOWN***
spoi***8: wins 15,019 with Full House, Queens full of Deuces
KickItAmish finished 233 out of 476 players.

[kingsnthahole]

sorry eejit, im a big fan of isolating opponents with big pairs...i feel if you shove or reraise big here, atleast one of your opponents will fold and one may even shove which is what you want...without looking at the hand played out yet, i'm going to guess you didn't win...a big reason is because AA is only an 85% favorite to 2 live cards, but if you take a flop to 4 live cards, your odds of winning decrease somewhat.

[kingsnthahole]

tough beat, QQ probably isnt going anywhere unless hes some kind of great player, OR if you rerasie preflop and then shove postflop....i doubt it...i think long ball is the style here, but he would have sucked out anyway.

[freeringo]

when your in the dark head toward the light
follow the light

[thenutzaa1]

ok eejit bad move here!! i didnt look at any replys and i didnt look to see if you won here..

First to act here 4 1/2 bets here.....chip leader calls too and a smooth call by you? you have to raise here. why? the guy first to act is going all in after the flop with his stack size and he is gonna go all in!!! now the chip leader calls, there goes a out for you b/c he deff. has a ace!! so you need to push here to take down the pot preflop......if you get a call its going to be KK-88 which is what you want!!!

middle of a tourney you need to steal pots like this 2000+ if you snap shove and knowone calls. you got to show people you have a strong hand

[thenutzaa1]

ok just looked at this!!! bad move by the 33..... and chip leader with QQ your out of this tourney no matter what!!!m i dont think the chip leader was letting go at all!!! even if you pushed preflop i think he snap calls....

this is one where you say i couldnt do anything....tough beat....next time...unless you folded

[eejit101]

Noone agrees with me, figured.

Heres the thinking.

If i push preflop - 33 folds. QQ calls. Id assume anyway.

If i reraise preflop, i give away my hand is strong, 33 folds, QQ calls id assume and will end up stacking me id assume also on the flop.

If i limp preflop -

this is the fun part. Limping here is definatly +EV. The maximum pot i can win here is 30k. Tripling me up. This is if the BB calls as well. The minimum i can win is 2.3k, if i reraise and they all fold. Which is very possible. As right now i dont know what they have.

So, if i reraise, i win alot less chips, get no bounty, and generally cry.

The math behind it is interesting too. Im tripling up, giving me 200% on my money. Which is nice.

If i go in vs QQ and 33, im about 75% i think (not sure im guessing). so 3 times out of 4 im going to triple up. And be a chip leader, a definate cash, a great shot at the final table.

If i go in with AA v QQ, im about 85% favourite (again, guess) and will double up this time.

If i go in vs nothing, i win 2.3k

So, the question i was thinking as everyone else folded after the big stacks flat call is, why am i gonna limp, what do they have.

I decided to put them on hands. I put the Big Stack on QQ, so i got one right, and the UTG guy on AK, got that wrong.

So then i based the math behind my plan on those hands. One pair, one Ace whatever hand.

Working it out, if i push, and im wrong, and they have AJ and 1010. They CAN both fold here. Which we dont want. They could also both have 1010 and be drawing dead, almost.


So i called to maximize pot equity, maximize pot size to committ UTG into pushing any flop with what i hoped was Ax, assuming my read on big stack was right he calls with overpair, i then push with AA, he calls, i have to dodge 2 out twice, maybe 3 outs twice. I do, i win, tyvm.


I dont get why you all want me to push. Screw isolating, why do i want people out for an extra 7 or 8% and lose so many chips that can be won here?


I want ff and hydros analysis, where are they

[thenutzaa1]

you limped and you got the same result as if you would of pushed all in..... now the difference is you still have a chance for that fold.....depending on table image...if he puts you on AA he folds b/c you have half of his stack!!! now you limped and the same result happen and you didnt get the pocket 33 out of your way!!!

[thenutzaa1]

and your around 65 percent agianst thoses two all ins

[navuta]

you limped and you got the same result as if you would of pushed all in..... now the difference is you still have a chance for that fold.....depending on table image...if he puts you on AA he folds b/c you have half of his stack!!! now you limped and the same result happen and you didnt get the pocket 33 out of your way!!!

Yes, I read all posts and I like to discuss hands.
I think thenutzaa is somehow right.
You limped and got the same result, but got the oportunity to fold to a bad situation. but what is the difference, if other players showed strength anyway? You cold reaaly get busted, but I guess that by preflop not one would have a duece, unlees a pairs of duece, making a four of kind and goind all in for sure..
So, I think also you had to 2x - 3x re-raise preflop, you would get lesse money, but would be more secure. Probably all would go all in anyway, what would make no differce, and you would not get the "hard" decision of calling all in with a pair on flop.
Nice move anyway..
Hope to see more hands to discussions here..

[eejit101]

I believ he nutz is wrong. And i was talking to 2 people who both had my table open, and was dicussing the passive option.

Why do i want a reason to fold AA?

I limped to get them both in, to triple up and have the chip lead.

IMO the play is the best move here.

Need some other opinions

[navuta]

In My Opinion?
In Memory Of?
I'm Moving On?
Internet Mail Only?
Instant Money-Order?
Information Management Officer?

I know it is the fisrt option..(I think I know) Is just that I forgot the meaning, to find out that there lots of possibilits with this abreviation.

But IMO you played right, I might have beted 3x call just to get the weekers out.
But I think thats MO.
You played well.

[thenutzaa1]

you are right eejit about limping gets you the most action!!!! and the best chance to triple up!!! but by pushing and you get QQ to fold is your best chance to still be playing!!! thats all i am saying....i mean mtt is all about lasting to the end!!

[eejit101]

Yeah but how can you last till the end without seizing the triple up opportunities?

[thenutzaa1]

by taking pots when your ahead!!! you made the right move for you to triple up, but instead you lost. its a hit or miss move!!

if i were you i would of raised preflop ethier all in or big bet and if the chip leader called, i would of shoved on the flop. if the chip leader called my preflop raise he is calling the all in on the flop so i would of been out as well.

[ffcowboy76]

I watched eejit play that particular hand and I wanted to see a raise to 2700. He didn't do it and we discussed what he posted. Something NO ever considers when looking at these hands in an online setting is that if we change the timing of the hand by so much as a 1/10000 of a second, we change the out come of every card that comes from that point forward. Every online site uses a revolving deck to prevent hackers from seeing the next cards to come. The deck preflop is revolving until the last person acts, then the cards come based on where the random deck is at. Once those 3 cards come the deck starts to revolve again.

I'm not saying that if eejit raises and changes the timing that the outcome is different, but we don't know what the outcome would be. There is too much random facts to consider that if he raises he changes the flop.

With that said, I see two different plays as an option. If eejit uses his play, which would of worked had the Q not come on the turn. It's the short side of the odds biting him in the butt. If eejit raises preflop he will possible lose the 33 and keep the QQ. Now he's heads up against QQ which puts him at 80/20 to win.

I think both plays are a perfect option and can be applied in everyones game at any level.

[eejit101]

If you hand analyzing you cant bring in the fact that the flop might change.


Its like an unwritten rule.

The flop is the flop, as thats the hand we are analyzing

[ffcowboy76]

I did analyze the hand, but I also threw in a point that I was pretty sure some people were not aware of.

As I said about the hand. There are 2 different ways to play it and both are very correct. If you raise you can see the 33 possible push preflop and the QQ will most certainly call. This puts you in a great spot. You get 1 all in preflop and the flop that happened allows you to push on the flop and get the Q's to call. You are against 4 outs at that point to win the whole thing.

The other way to play it is the way you did. The way you played it allows you to get away from the hand easier if you don't like what the flop offers. However, it's going to take a rather great fold to make that happen with AA.

[CreamSoda]

BC youre out of position and 3 way, I think isolating preflop is smarter. If the table is strong, you could even just shove to represent a squeeze. Flatting is obv bigger risk/bigger reward.

I think you have to lead at any flop, nothing worse than seeing it go checkcheck and boom you gave 2 people a free card.

After you did check it to them obv you had to shove and there was no point in even posting the turn and river as they were irellevant (bad beat story in disguise imo)

[eejit101]

Lol, if you paid any attention you know i hate bad beat stories.

Feel free to read.

[CreamSoda]

Lol, if you paid any attention you know i hate bad beat stories.

Feel free to read.

I am sorry....

[eejit101]

Then thats good!