Ill now rip this one apart.
In a cash table, you can "Read" someone for having AK-A9, or a pair.... with no action apart from a check from the Big blind? Are you Jesus? Thats technically impossible.
On the turn it went, bet by you, raise, 3bet by you. Now your assuming he was weak? He called the 3bet? Hes obviously hit soe part of this. Noone calls off $24 on some kind of random weak hand.
How can he continuation bet the flop? Theres no money on the pot.
Heres my reads using Level 3/4 analysis
If i were you, the "hero" here, on the flop id be 50% thinking Ax with no pair, 25% thinking 87-A7, 12% thinking x3 or x5, and 3% thinking set. With the other 10% for complete air and over pairs.
On the turn he is betting stronger. So narrow it down. He doesnt have AK, he doesnt have a drawing hand. He has IMO here J7/AJ or some kind of pair and flush draw combo. Thats the MOSt likely scenario for the passive turn call after the 3bet.
On the river, you pushed so we have no idea. You realise you lost a hell of a lot of extra bets on this river dont you? pushing wins you nothing.
As for him, he is putting you on absulutely anything preflop and on the flop. On the turn id be thinking you had 2 pair, possible set, again a possible flopped straight. Maybe KK/QQ/AA, as i know id play those hands similar to this, but id make correct bet amounts with them. On the river, id fold out.
Now you said you were pushing this river regardless.
Why?
If the river is an Ace.... your pushing? If its a K Q T 9 8 2. Your pushing?
Your getting called by AJ+ on this river, i guarantee it.
without a hand here, on a blank river, your just spewing chips.
As for the "70% of the time i win this" bit, even with those reads, you can take the "0" off that number.







