Seeing too many hands

[esmordan]

Rescently i thought i was just getting SCREWED by FTP....i felt everytime i was in a dominateing possition i would get outdrawn....Whether it be KK vs Ax or AK vs Ax...everytime somone had a 3 outer they would hit.

So i descided to take a small pool.
I logged about 700 hands on FTP. and watched the %'s. And to my amazement they came out very close to correct. The thing about it is you always seem to remeber the beats you take with them. You don't remeber everytime you win with it b/c you expect to win with a dominating hand.

So its not the fact you are losing to all these bad beats...but the fact that you prolly see 1000 hands a day and remeber 1-2 hands.

Funny thing is it just happened to me as i was writing this post.

I have A j suited in BB guy UTG ( under the gun) minraises....i smooth call and the flop runs out A 7 2 i lead out for about 3/4 the pot and 1/2 my stack.
He then snapshoves. i take my full time and look at previous hands b4 i descide to call. He doesn't slip over Ax no no even worse he has QQ and thought...idk what he thought (HE COULD PUSH ME OFF MY ACE....or i had nothing) but regardless he got it in with 2 outs and wouldn't you know the Q falls on the turn to give him his mirical 2 outer.

Next hand i get it in with AJ vs A4 and 4 on river haha.......well gl all

[esmordan]

another thing is i am running bad haha...i get KK a gut 1st to act 3 bets to i make it 200 on top short stack shoves and has AA of corse haha

[eejit101]

For disussion on running bad ill win every time

As for someone FINALLY TAKING THE TIME TO WORK OUT IF THEY ARE BEING SCREWED BY SITE............


Thankyou so much for doing that.

Everyone always thinks the sites are messing with them, but they arent. Youll win 5 or so hands in a tourney before getting screwed.

Just ask NDN and myself. We so often (him more than me) get fu**ed over late in games. Its always to stupid things like AK vs AQ, or AK to 69 or something stupid. then we will lose a race or have to get it in behind and go out in 9th or 3rd when we should be winning.

The issue is getting there enough times and having hands hold up more oftent han they should be.

Theoretically you should never lose a tournament unless you run into a situation where you have to get it in behind, or run into a monster with a less huge monster.

[esmordan]

haha yeah the thing is eejit is that thses beats come at the worst times...like when top 4 bet paid and u finish 4th b/c someone calls yer all in with their A4 when u have Aj or better ...or in my cards i will be a dominating chip leader and get KK vs the short stacks with their A x and they hit

then i will get QQ vs k 10 ...always happens late too

[ffcowboy76]

I'm guessing this would be a good place to offer up some thoughts on something called variance. Most poker players know what variance is, but some don't seem to think it applies to them. Believe me I would love to when every hand I get into when I'm way ahead, but that isn't going to happen. There is NO hand preflop that is 100% to win. There is only 1 hand that is 100% to win on the flop and that is a flopped straight flush. You might have an opponent close to drawing dead, but they never are. This is where variance comes in.

Let's look at the odds of a hand. AA vs KK is the one hand that I see cause heart break so often. The A's are up 80/20 preflop and looking really good against the K's. What we don't remember is that 20 on the back half of the odds. That is where variance comes in. Out of 100 hands you should win roughly 80 of them and lose roughly 20. Mind you I didn't say you would win exactly 80 and lose exactly 20, odds don't work like that.

If you wanna see it's true, count how many times you take AA up against KK and count the wins and loses. You will see that as the number of hands against each other grows, the outcomes get closer and closer to the odds.

I will say that just because I can write this doesn't mean I like taking a bad beat caused by variance. I've learned to accept it because I've been on the longest, hardest, roughest cold streak in my life.

[freeringo]

Definetly agree here.
My radar starts beeping after I have had 3 good hands in a short period of time.
The Bad beat is coming.
It usally comes in the form of AK in the 1st position.
The thing I do, if I can remember to, is under play my big hands in that situation.
If you push, 99 will likely call you, because of you playing too many hands.
If you limp, that 99 should limp with you and you might be able to get him off his hand if there are any over cards.

[allinking17]

Thanks for this post, its good to see someone who actually realizes the laws of variance and has the will enough to log a number of hands in order to prove it to the rest of us. Although there still will be tons and tons adn tons of doubters who will claim that "stars is rigged" "its jokerstars" "happens to me everytime" Blah blah blah. I know that i am guilty at times of saying some of these things, its just raw emotion. Everytime i think of saying something like this though im just going to refer back to this post and keep myself in line. Thanks again for the quality post

[thejuanupsman]

If only posts like this were as common as all the rigtard posts. Nicely done.

[0maxpower0]

Definetly agree here.
My radar starts beeping after I have had 3 good hands in a short period of time.
The Bad beat is coming.
It usally comes in the form of AK in the 1st position.
The thing I do, if I can remember to, is under play my big hands in that situation.
If you push, 99 will likely call you, because of you playing too many hands.
If you limp, that 99 should limp with you and you might be able to get him off his hand if there are any over cards.

Yes, it always seems to work out like that. After you win a few big hands or something, you get a great hand and you get outdrawn or 2 outed, something like that. For the longest time i was just convinced that it was set up that way to keep things on an even keel (didnt really think out that philosophy) but you have to be able to get away from some hands. Fact is your last hand has nothing to do with the next hand you get dealt, as far as what the cards are going to be is concerned. The hands you have that lose seem more detrimental to your psyche, while the coin flips you win and the 4 outers you hit, just arent as powerful in your mind. Me personally, I'll wina coin flip or a race where im slightly ahead and think "thats how it should be, no big deal" while if i lose one, it seems much more detremental. Fact is, have good position when you can, maintain the pot size you want, and learn to get away from hands like ak,jj, and qq... for me it always seems that its those hands where i lose the most, because i overvalue them or play them in poor position, (particularly after a win). Discipline is key, play every hand relative to the current situation, not what has or will happen, and i promise youll see results.