Belmont Analysis

[klinkman]

To start off, I'll talk about this race in general and the track it's ran on, some thoughts on mile and a half races, and why running all 3 legs of the triple crown is so grueling.

The Belmont stakes is called the test of champions for a reason. The race is long, grueling and requires a talented horse and rider. Belmont park is called the "big sandy" for a reason as well. It has this deep sandy dirt that some horses don't like and other relish. Lemon Drop Kid loved the surface the year he took the crown away from Charismatic. An angle to play is to look for horses that have run well over the Belmont surface, and horses who's parents have run well over the surface.

One major thing to remember is that the Belmont stakes does not favor deep closers. Remember this. Deep closers do not need more time to catch the leaders. They need faster fractions to wear out the horses near the pace. No horse has run the last 5 runnings of the Belmont from further back than 3rd at the top of the stretch. Generally, there is no pressure on the lead horse, and the race sets up like it did last year where the lead horse holds on. Remember, Alydar and Affirmed ran neck and neck in front for the last 6 furlongs because there was no pace.

Deep closers win races when the pace is really fast. The best example I can think of for this was the year Monarchos won the Kentucky Derby. The track was packed very fast, and Songandaprayer was a true sprinter running in the derby pretty much because he could. He set the fastest fractions in Kentucky Derby history, and tired out all the stalkers. Talented horses like Point Given just faded in the stretch and Monarchos came out of nowhere to win in near record time. That's what needs to happen for a deep closer to win a race like this.

Another thing to consider is how grueling 3 races in 5 weeks is for horses. Horses have become both faster and more fragile in recent years. Whether that is due to inbreeding, coddling young horses, or whatever else people say, it's here and it must be accounted for. Because horses have become so much more fragile, it's very likely that they will not run up to their best after 2 big races in a month. That's why a lot of trainers skip the Preakness and train their horse for the Belmont. This only affects 2 of the horses in the race, and one is a toss anyway, but a very close look at Mine That Bird is needed in this race.

[taylovesthebeatles]

The more I hear about him, the more I like Charitable Man as well, but I still don't think you can completely discount Chocolate Candy. Mine That Bird is still somewhat of a sentimental pick just because I want to see Calvin go for the jockey triple crown, but I'm mainly just sad Rachel Alexandra isn't running. If it's best for her to not run though then I'm all for that.

[PANAMHIEST]

Personally i am going for charitable man. This is a stronger, but smaller horse i believe will have the endurance to outlast some of the bigger horses. I am a bit concerned with miners escape and mine that bird, as they too are both good small endurance horses, but charitable man is my man, and i know charitable man will have the stregnth and endurance, plus the heart at the end to take home the triple crown.

[PANAMHIEST]

HOLY CHIT did you guys just see what diamondrella did? That was ***ing awesome and all the way from the back of the pack.

[twissisa]

I wonder if they are putting up odds in Vegas for the "Borel Triple Crown"?. Sure they are, you can bet on anything in Vegas, right?. Anyway, I think Mind That Bird will win this race, he seems to like to step it up a notch at the very end. So i bet the trifecta 7/38. Prolly should have put him with everyone. The odds on hitting the superfecta should be pretty good with only 10 running. Think I will box 4 of them. And I put some money on Luv Gov just in case............. to win. Good luck everyone with your bets

[Lilred36]

Klink I really wish you would do these a lil earlier, did ok with Musket man, but now I am on my own wish me luck!!!!!!!!

[twissisa]

Well, goes to show ya how much I know. My sister did hit the $1 superfecta box, she won half which amounted to $400 some dollars for a $24 bet. Anyone else do any good? Congrats if ya did.

[Pokerkitty6]

I hit the trifecta which paid $295. I spent $80 on many different combinations and one paid off!!! I love the horses!!!!

[eejit101]

I hit the trifecta which paid $295. I spent $80 on many different combinations and one paid off!!! I love the horses!!!!

You realise that is -EV in the long run right?

[Pokerkitty6]

As long as I double my money, I'm a winner!!! Looking forward to the next win.

[klinkman]

You realise that is -EV in the long run right?

Not if you do it right. Eliminating all the horses who will never hit the board then boxing the rest in trifectas can be a profitable strategy. You just have to be careful about who you toss.

[eejit101]

Exactly!

I saw someone do it once. Left a decent pick of 7 horses. Covered em all.

He ended up net losing $45 cos the 3 favourites came in 1/2/3

[twissisa]

I hit the trifecta which paid $295. I spent $80 on many different combinations and one paid off!!! I love the horses!!!!

Very nice Pokerkitty. I usually only bet the horses for the Triple Crown. I do however love betting on the greyhounds. Usually go a couple times a year in the fall. They also have a poker room there that I need to go check out. Congrats again

[klinkman]

Exactly!

I saw someone do it once. Left a decent pick of 7 horses. Covered em all.

He ended up net losing $45 cos the 3 favourites came in 1/2/3

If the favorites ran 1-2-3 every time there'd be no need for covering the other horses lol.

If you do it right it is certainly a profitable betting strategy. Thats even if you lose a small amount when the favorites go 1-2-3.

[eejit101]

Ok.

Well, more horse tips are appreciated, and ill see if i can do a big load of box trifectas next time.