Belmont Analysis

[klinkman]

He likes this course. That's a huge factor given the uniqueness of the Belmont course. His dad won the Belmont Stakes. That's a huge factor given how long this race is. He's coming off a win and 2 improving races. He will need to improve a little bit to hit the quality of these horses. I think he can, and that's why he's my pick to win, and will be one of the 3 on top of my exactas.

[klinkman]

Here is an interesting figure-His Preakness 2nd was a 119 equibase speed figure, whereas his Kentucky Derby win was only a 115. Now figures certainly dont tell the whole story-Flying Private was given a 115 for his 4th in the Preakness, but that race certainly was not as good as Mine That Bird's Derby Win. No other horse in the race has run figures even close to those though. Even without much pace, if Mine That Bird Runs his race, I don't think anyone can catch him.

But here is the issue-Mine That Bird may not run his race. The triple crown is grueling and running both previous races, and running that big and that hard, had to have taken a lot out of Mine that Bird.

He's been bet down to Even money in the win pool. I don't think I like him that much. He is in my exactas, but I would advise against betting him to win.

[klinkman]

Flying Private ran huge in the preakness, and finished 4th. I just can't see him menacing today. He is just a cut below the rest.

Miner's Escape took 6 tries to break his maiden, and the Fedrico Tesio stakes was quite weak this year. He is a cut below as well.

Both of these horses are tosses to me.

[klinkman]

I think he has more of a chance than the last 2 I mentioned, but I still don't really like him. His last couple of races have been mediocre against mediocre competition. He needs a big improvement to be able to get into the mix. He does like the track which is a plus. I still think I toss him though.

[klinkman]

I exacta box 2-6-7 and and put 5$ on Dunkirk and Charitable Man.

[taylovesthebeatles]

The more I hear about him, the more I like Charitable Man as well, but I still don't think you can completely discount Chocolate Candy. Mine That Bird is still somewhat of a sentimental pick just because I want to see Calvin go for the jockey triple crown, but I'm mainly just sad Rachel Alexandra isn't running. If it's best for her to not run though then I'm all for that.

[freeringo]

My exacta box is 3 4 9.

My favorite numbers.

I hope they win.

I wonder what horses I picked.

ahhh

Edgar Kent and Jose

[twissisa]

I wonder if they are putting up odds in Vegas for the "Borel Triple Crown"?. Sure they are, you can bet on anything in Vegas, right?. Anyway, I think Mind That Bird will win this race, he seems to like to step it up a notch at the very end. So i bet the trifecta 7/38. Prolly should have put him with everyone. The odds on hitting the superfecta should be pretty good with only 10 running. Think I will box 4 of them. And I put some money on Luv Gov just in case............. to win. Good luck everyone with your bets

[Lilred36]

Klink I really wish you would do these a lil earlier, did ok with Musket man, but now I am on my own wish me luck!!!!!!!!

[twissisa]

Well, goes to show ya how much I know. My sister did hit the $1 superfecta box, she won half which amounted to $400 some dollars for a $24 bet. Anyone else do any good? Congrats if ya did.

[Pokerkitty6]

I hit the trifecta which paid $295. I spent $80 on many different combinations and one paid off!!! I love the horses!!!!

[eejit101]

I hit the trifecta which paid $295. I spent $80 on many different combinations and one paid off!!! I love the horses!!!!

You realise that is -EV in the long run right?

[Pokerkitty6]

As long as I double my money, I'm a winner!!! Looking forward to the next win.

[klinkman]

You realise that is -EV in the long run right?

Not if you do it right. Eliminating all the horses who will never hit the board then boxing the rest in trifectas can be a profitable strategy. You just have to be careful about who you toss.

[twissisa]

I hit the trifecta which paid $295. I spent $80 on many different combinations and one paid off!!! I love the horses!!!!

Very nice Pokerkitty. I usually only bet the horses for the Triple Crown. I do however love betting on the greyhounds. Usually go a couple times a year in the fall. They also have a poker room there that I need to go check out. Congrats again