Belmont Analysis

[klinkman]

I am not at all a fan of this trifecta.

[klinkman]

This is the horse that everyone but me seems to like. Sorry guys, I see an outclassed closer, who will get no pace and may not like the surface. He's really not beaten anyone, except tired horses in the derby. All of his strong performances have been on polytrack, and Belmont is way different than the pro-ride at Santa Anita. And this horse is getting bet down something fierce. Avoid this horse, and bet on the horses that are unduly high because of the action on him.

[klinkman]

Yesterday I would have told you to absolutely bet him to win and key him on your exactas and trifectas. Then the track got wet. Dunkirk absolutely did not like the wet-fast track in the Kentucky Derby. He might not like the track today either. That being said, he's up to 6-1 in the betting, mostly because of all the money on Mine That Bird and Chocolate Candy. So he might be worth a bet after all. I won't be betting him in the Win pool, but he will be in my exacta tickets.

[klinkman]

I'm still not a fan of his. He's not that fast, I know you can toss the derby, but his other races are lackluster as well, with only the 3rd in the Santa Anita being decent, and that race keeps looking weaker and weaker in retrospect, and the Sham stakes was underwhelming as well. He is another horse where most of his starts are on polytrack. I know you can't just toss a horse just because his preps are on polytrack, class there is class anywhere-but lack of class there is lack of class everywhere. And Mr. Hot Stuff has never shown anything that suggests he can hang with this class.

[klinkman]

Like a worse version of Chocolate Candy. Just another deep closer who will get no pace and has not won a big race. I just see nothing to like about this horse today.

Luv Gov: How many times did it take for him to break his madien? And how did he do in the Preakness? I think you'll agree with me when I toss him.

[klinkman]

He likes this course. That's a huge factor given the uniqueness of the Belmont course. His dad won the Belmont Stakes. That's a huge factor given how long this race is. He's coming off a win and 2 improving races. He will need to improve a little bit to hit the quality of these horses. I think he can, and that's why he's my pick to win, and will be one of the 3 on top of my exactas.

[klinkman]

Here is an interesting figure-His Preakness 2nd was a 119 equibase speed figure, whereas his Kentucky Derby win was only a 115. Now figures certainly dont tell the whole story-Flying Private was given a 115 for his 4th in the Preakness, but that race certainly was not as good as Mine That Bird's Derby Win. No other horse in the race has run figures even close to those though. Even without much pace, if Mine That Bird Runs his race, I don't think anyone can catch him.

But here is the issue-Mine That Bird may not run his race. The triple crown is grueling and running both previous races, and running that big and that hard, had to have taken a lot out of Mine that Bird.

He's been bet down to Even money in the win pool. I don't think I like him that much. He is in my exactas, but I would advise against betting him to win.

[freeringo]

My exacta box is 3 4 9.

My favorite numbers.

I hope they win.

I wonder what horses I picked.

ahhh

Edgar Kent and Jose

[twissisa]

I wonder if they are putting up odds in Vegas for the "Borel Triple Crown"?. Sure they are, you can bet on anything in Vegas, right?. Anyway, I think Mind That Bird will win this race, he seems to like to step it up a notch at the very end. So i bet the trifecta 7/38. Prolly should have put him with everyone. The odds on hitting the superfecta should be pretty good with only 10 running. Think I will box 4 of them. And I put some money on Luv Gov just in case............. to win. Good luck everyone with your bets