Belmont Analysis

[eejit101]

Personally straight up bets are better returns.

However weirdly ive made more money on tricasts, especially here as if you bet a tricast in WilliamHill, and you hit it in order than you have them to finish, you get double the win. If its the three u picked in any oder you get the standard win (which in a 12 horse race is normally pretty big)

[klinkman]

Personally straight up bets are better returns.

However weirdly ive made more money on tricasts, especially here as if you bet a tricast in WilliamHill, and you hit it in order than you have them to finish, you get double the win. If its the three u picked in any oder you get the standard win (which in a 12 horse race is normally pretty big)

1 Chocolate Candy (KY )
Garrett Gomez / Jerry Hollendorfer 10/1
2 Dunkirk (KY )
John Velazquez / Todd Pletcher 4/1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff (KY )
Edgar Prado / Eoin Harty 15/1
4 Summer Bird (KY )
Kent Desormeaux / Tim Ice 12/1
5 Luv Gov (KY )
Miguel Mena / D. Lukas 20/1
6 Charitable Man (VA )
Alan Garcia / Kiaran McLaughlin 3/1
7 Mine That Bird (KY )
Calvin Borel / Bennie Woolley, Jr. 2/1
8 Flying Private (KY )
Julien Leparoux / D. Lukas 12/1
9 Miner's Escape (KY )
Jose Lezcano / Nicholas Zito 15/1
10 Brave Victory (KY )
Rajiv Maragh / Nicholas Zito 15/1

These are the morning line odds at Belmont. I expect the longshots to end up between 20 and 30 to 1, and the rest to stay where they are, with Mine maybe going down to 3-2

Edit: I actually think straight up win bets are not the way to go this race, but I'll discuss what I think later.
Edit 2: The race is this Saturday. Coverage starts at 5 eastern, race is at 6:27 Local. You can find all this information, past performances and more here: http://www.ntra.com/races.aspx?id=37081&section=races

[eejit101]

7, 2, 1 trifecta sounds good to me.

[taylovesthebeatles]

7, 2, 1 trifecta sounds good to me.

I think Mr. Hot Stuff has the edge over Dunkirk in this one. Otherwise I like your trifecta I think.

[klinkman]

I am not at all a fan of this trifecta.

[klinkman]

This is the horse that everyone but me seems to like. Sorry guys, I see an outclassed closer, who will get no pace and may not like the surface. He's really not beaten anyone, except tired horses in the derby. All of his strong performances have been on polytrack, and Belmont is way different than the pro-ride at Santa Anita. And this horse is getting bet down something fierce. Avoid this horse, and bet on the horses that are unduly high because of the action on him.

[klinkman]

Yesterday I would have told you to absolutely bet him to win and key him on your exactas and trifectas. Then the track got wet. Dunkirk absolutely did not like the wet-fast track in the Kentucky Derby. He might not like the track today either. That being said, he's up to 6-1 in the betting, mostly because of all the money on Mine That Bird and Chocolate Candy. So he might be worth a bet after all. I won't be betting him in the Win pool, but he will be in my exacta tickets.

[klinkman]

I'm still not a fan of his. He's not that fast, I know you can toss the derby, but his other races are lackluster as well, with only the 3rd in the Santa Anita being decent, and that race keeps looking weaker and weaker in retrospect, and the Sham stakes was underwhelming as well. He is another horse where most of his starts are on polytrack. I know you can't just toss a horse just because his preps are on polytrack, class there is class anywhere-but lack of class there is lack of class everywhere. And Mr. Hot Stuff has never shown anything that suggests he can hang with this class.

[PANAMHIEST]

Personally i am going for charitable man. This is a stronger, but smaller horse i believe will have the endurance to outlast some of the bigger horses. I am a bit concerned with miners escape and mine that bird, as they too are both good small endurance horses, but charitable man is my man, and i know charitable man will have the stregnth and endurance, plus the heart at the end to take home the triple crown.