Belmont Analysis

[klinkman]

To start off, I'll talk about this race in general and the track it's ran on, some thoughts on mile and a half races, and why running all 3 legs of the triple crown is so grueling.

The Belmont stakes is called the test of champions for a reason. The race is long, grueling and requires a talented horse and rider. Belmont park is called the "big sandy" for a reason as well. It has this deep sandy dirt that some horses don't like and other relish. Lemon Drop Kid loved the surface the year he took the crown away from Charismatic. An angle to play is to look for horses that have run well over the Belmont surface, and horses who's parents have run well over the surface.

One major thing to remember is that the Belmont stakes does not favor deep closers. Remember this. Deep closers do not need more time to catch the leaders. They need faster fractions to wear out the horses near the pace. No horse has run the last 5 runnings of the Belmont from further back than 3rd at the top of the stretch. Generally, there is no pressure on the lead horse, and the race sets up like it did last year where the lead horse holds on. Remember, Alydar and Affirmed ran neck and neck in front for the last 6 furlongs because there was no pace.

Deep closers win races when the pace is really fast. The best example I can think of for this was the year Monarchos won the Kentucky Derby. The track was packed very fast, and Songandaprayer was a true sprinter running in the derby pretty much because he could. He set the fastest fractions in Kentucky Derby history, and tired out all the stalkers. Talented horses like Point Given just faded in the stretch and Monarchos came out of nowhere to win in near record time. That's what needs to happen for a deep closer to win a race like this.

Another thing to consider is how grueling 3 races in 5 weeks is for horses. Horses have become both faster and more fragile in recent years. Whether that is due to inbreeding, coddling young horses, or whatever else people say, it's here and it must be accounted for. Because horses have become so much more fragile, it's very likely that they will not run up to their best after 2 big races in a month. That's why a lot of trainers skip the Preakness and train their horse for the Belmont. This only affects 2 of the horses in the race, and one is a toss anyway, but a very close look at Mine That Bird is needed in this race.

[taylovesthebeatles]

I look forward to reading your analysis of all the horses. I am still sad Rachel Alexandra isn't running again, but I applaud her trainers and owners for taking care of the horse's needs first. People really should look at that when they criticise the sport. I don't think anyone could care more about horses than these trainers and jockeys. What's the latest on Calvin Borel? Has he been asked to ride Mine That Bird again?

[klinkman]

I look forward to reading your analysis of all the horses. I am still sad Rachel Alexandra isn't running again, but I applaud her trainers and owners for taking care of the horse's needs first. People really should look at that when they criticise the sport. I don't think anyone could care more about horses than these trainers and jockeys. What's the latest on Calvin Borel? Has he been asked to ride Mine That Bird again?

Calvin will be riding Mine That Bird on Saturday. He has already guaranteed victory. We all remember what happened the last time someone guarateed victory in the Belmont though right?

[taylovesthebeatles]

Calvin will be riding Mine That Bird on Saturday. He has already guaranteed victory. We all remember what happened the last time someone guarateed victory in the Belmont though right?

Yes, yes we do. Your desktop reminds me every day!

Failmont Stakes.

[Sassy12U]

Is it true that they give steroids to horses before the races?

If so, that is really sad. I would hate to be an animal forced to have steroids in my system and then race. It's just like that football player who made dogs fight. That is so wrong and hurtful to the animal.

[klinkman]

Is it true that they give steroids to horses before the races?

If so, that is really sad. I would hate to be an animal forced to have steroids in my system and then race. It's just like that football player who made dogs fight. That is so wrong and hurtful to the animal.

Steroids have been banned in all of the states that run triple crown races, as well as Califonia and I believe Florida, and most other states have either banned them or are in the process of passing the ban.

Lasix is still allowed. That is the issue that needs to be addressed now.

[taylovesthebeatles]

Is it true that they give steroids to horses before the races?

If so, that is really sad. I would hate to be an animal forced to have steroids in my system and then race. It's just like that football player who made dogs fight. That is so wrong and hurtful to the animal.

They still use some performance type drugs, but this years Kentucky Derby was the first Derby to be steroid-free. They're trying to crack down on this issue a lot, but the problem is different states and countries have different rules, and it's very difficult to get a sweeping change like this in the racehorsing industry.

[Pokerkitty6]

I love the fact that you love horses!!!! You seem to know what you're talking about. I like Minethat bird, but so does everyone else. Who would you put with him? What kind of bets would you make to get the best return of your money? What do you think about Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hotstuff? I love Mr. Hotstuff because he is a young horse who just seems to love the track. He runs out of gate and doesn't look back. I'm not sure if he has enough experience....Chocolate Candy has made some money...could there be more.? Lemon Drop's kid, Charitable man seems like a good bet too. As always for me, too many horses and too many ways to bet!!!! The Derby, Preakness, and the Belmont are like holidays for me, I love them!!!! These are days I set aside for myself. I make sure I am somewhere I can watch them and bet on them at the same time!!! I always pre-plan my party and take the next day off! I can't wait!!!!!! Looking forward to everyone's responses, even if you have never bet on a horse...maybe you just like the name. Let me know. Will we have the first triple crown jockey???????

[eejit101]

Personally straight up bets are better returns.

However weirdly ive made more money on tricasts, especially here as if you bet a tricast in WilliamHill, and you hit it in order than you have them to finish, you get double the win. If its the three u picked in any oder you get the standard win (which in a 12 horse race is normally pretty big)

[PANAMHIEST]

HOLY CHIT did you guys just see what diamondrella did? That was ***ing awesome and all the way from the back of the pack.