Looks like I wont have time to finish out this thread. Lame. Here's my current thoughts though.

I Want Revenge is out. This really doesn't change a whole lot as far as pace, and as far as top players go.

Track is gonna be sloppy. This plays to Fresian Fire's favor for sure.

The Goldophin Horses look good. I've read they they've been training quite well, and on paper they are just as good as the favorites. Bet them if they stay over 10-1.

Dunkirk's stock has gone up in my mind. He will probably hit the board, and one less talented horse in his way is probably to his benefit

I'm still not sure what to make of Pioneerof The Nile. He doesn't seem to run that fast, but he just doesn't lose.

Musket Man has a shot. 20-1 on him is an amazing price. I know he could bounce, but if he doesn't he is fast enough to win.

I really don't think any other horse has a chance, and includes tossing General Quarters, Chocolate Candy and West Side Bernie

Here's how I bet it

$6-Fresian Fire
$4-Dunkirk
$4-Pioneerof The Nile
$2-Musket Man
$2-Regal Ransom
$2-Desert Party
$2-Papa Clem

All to win.