Musket Man is another candidate to bounce off of his last effort. He put up an impressive performance to win the Illinois Derby. He ran a 104 Beyer that race, and the only other time he ran a 100+ speed figure, he suffered his only loss the next race, a distant 3rd in the Sam F. Davis stakes. But I think tossing a horse with his resume would be foolish. He's won 2 graded prep races leading up to the derby, improving each time. He's never faced most of the Derby competition, and his speed figures have just plain been better than most of the horses this race. He will need to run basically his best race in order to win, but the question to ask is if he is capable of winning. Most of the horses in the race just plain simply aren't. Musket Man is. And at 20-1, it'd be quite a hit if he pulled it off.