Kentuky Derby is in 3 Days!

[klinkman]

Starting at post #1, West Side Bernie comes in off of a strong 2nd in the Wood Memorial, which is New York's biggest prep race. He ran a career highest Beyer Speed Figure in that race, with a 107. However, his next highest is a 98, from when he finished 6th in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. His last 3 races were given figures of 92, 97 and 95. Usually, when a horse runs that much faster than his previous efforts, he ends up running worse than those figures his next time out. This is sometimes referred to as "bouncing". West Side Bernie is a prime candidate to bounce and run poorly. Even if he runs as well as he did in the Wood, I'm skeptical that would be enough to win anyway. So all in all, I'm willing to pass on him completely this Saturday.

[klinkman]

Musket Man is another candidate to bounce off of his last effort. He put up an impressive performance to win the Illinois Derby. He ran a 104 Beyer that race, and the only other time he ran a 100+ speed figure, he suffered his only loss the next race, a distant 3rd in the Sam F. Davis stakes. But I think tossing a horse with his resume would be foolish. He's won 2 graded prep races leading up to the derby, improving each time. He's never faced most of the Derby competition, and his speed figures have just plain been better than most of the horses this race. He will need to run basically his best race in order to win, but the question to ask is if he is capable of winning. Most of the horses in the race just plain simply aren't. Musket Man is. And at 20-1, it'd be quite a hit if he pulled it off.