Kentuky Derby is in 3 Days!

[klinkman]

Race analysis to come in this thread. Here's a list of starters:

1. West Side Bernie
2. Musket Man
3. Mr. Hot Stuff
4. Advice
5. Hold Me Back
6. Fresian Fire
7. Papa Clem
8. Mine That Bird
9. Join in the Dance
10. Regal Ransom
11. Chocolate Candy
12. General Quarters
13. I Want Revenge
14. Atomic Rain
15. Dunkirk
16. Pioneerof The Nile
17. Summer Bird
18. Nowhere to Hide
19. Desert Party
20. Flying Private

Contenders List here: Derby Contenders | Kentucky Derby 135
Past Performances here: http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2009/si...erbypps5-2.PDF

I'll give my thoughts on each of the horses over the next day or so.

[freeringo]

Here is the updated odds.
Who do you like to win place and show?

[klinkman]

I'll give a more detailed look as I can, but the spoiler is: I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and the Godolphin horses. Not sure what to make of Pioneerof The Nile. Musket Man is my sneak pick.

[freeringo]

1st Hold me back 15-1
2nd Friesan Fire 5-1
3rd Dunkirk 4-1

[klinkman]

1st Hold me back 15-1
2nd Friesan Fire 5-1
3rd Dunkirk 4-1

Not at all a fan of Hold Me Back. He's just plain not fast enough.
Edit: He's also only ran once on dirt, and that was his only off the board finish.

[freeringo]

I just like the name.
I won money last 3 derbys by
knowing nothing about the horses.
Kind of the way I play Poker.

[klinkman]

I just like the name.
I won money last 3 derbys by
knowing nothing about the horses.
Kind of the way I play Poker.

I suppose that's one way to do it lol.

[klinkman]

Starting at post #1, West Side Bernie comes in off of a strong 2nd in the Wood Memorial, which is New York's biggest prep race. He ran a career highest Beyer Speed Figure in that race, with a 107. However, his next highest is a 98, from when he finished 6th in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. His last 3 races were given figures of 92, 97 and 95. Usually, when a horse runs that much faster than his previous efforts, he ends up running worse than those figures his next time out. This is sometimes referred to as "bouncing". West Side Bernie is a prime candidate to bounce and run poorly. Even if he runs as well as he did in the Wood, I'm skeptical that would be enough to win anyway. So all in all, I'm willing to pass on him completely this Saturday.

[klinkman]

Musket Man is another candidate to bounce off of his last effort. He put up an impressive performance to win the Illinois Derby. He ran a 104 Beyer that race, and the only other time he ran a 100+ speed figure, he suffered his only loss the next race, a distant 3rd in the Sam F. Davis stakes. But I think tossing a horse with his resume would be foolish. He's won 2 graded prep races leading up to the derby, improving each time. He's never faced most of the Derby competition, and his speed figures have just plain been better than most of the horses this race. He will need to run basically his best race in order to win, but the question to ask is if he is capable of winning. Most of the horses in the race just plain simply aren't. Musket Man is. And at 20-1, it'd be quite a hit if he pulled it off.

[klinkman]

Not a whole lot to say about him. He took 5 races to break his maiden, and hasn't won since. His third in the Santa Anita Derby was unexpected, but it will take a lot more for him to replicate that performance. I really think he has no chance on Saturday.

[ScareCrowAKA]

I pick by the names too, lol... west side bernie, chocolate candy, regal ransom

[taylovesthebeatles]

I'm going to watch the race with Klinkman, and I'm just going to laugh at him if one of the horses he claims to have no chance actually wins the thing. Hopefully he won't hold it against me toooo much later, lol.

Thanks for all this info, it's really interesting and I can't wait to hear what you think about the rest of the pack. Hopefully more horses won't keep dropping out of the Derby.

[eejit101]

I know nothing about this race, but i like Friesan Fire looking at form guides.

[freeringo]

I got my money on Hold Me Back to win @ 17-1
and to place or show @ 4.2 to 1

Sound the horns

[klinkman]

Looks like I wont have time to finish out this thread. Lame. Here's my current thoughts though.

I Want Revenge is out. This really doesn't change a whole lot as far as pace, and as far as top players go.

Track is gonna be sloppy. This plays to Fresian Fire's favor for sure.

The Goldophin Horses look good. I've read they they've been training quite well, and on paper they are just as good as the favorites. Bet them if they stay over 10-1.

Dunkirk's stock has gone up in my mind. He will probably hit the board, and one less talented horse in his way is probably to his benefit

I'm still not sure what to make of Pioneerof The Nile. He doesn't seem to run that fast, but he just doesn't lose.

Musket Man has a shot. 20-1 on him is an amazing price. I know he could bounce, but if he doesn't he is fast enough to win.

I really don't think any other horse has a chance, and includes tossing General Quarters, Chocolate Candy and West Side Bernie

Here's how I bet it

$6-Fresian Fire
$4-Dunkirk
$4-Pioneerof The Nile
$2-Musket Man
$2-Regal Ransom
$2-Desert Party
$2-Papa Clem

All to win.

[taylovesthebeatles]

Kinda disappointed to see Just Jenda lose in the Eight Belles Stakes. I still miss that horse, but glad she's well honored. Looking forward to the Derby soon!