% beat rule

[kingsnthahole]

ok so lets say that you have a decent hand, but your in a tough position..aka your first to act..to figure out your odds that your hand is beat by a higher pair or not, you do the following math...

pocket J's-figure out how many cards are higher than a J...3, durrrrr (Q, K, A)

then multiply that by the number of people left behind you to act in the hand,EG. in a ring game...it would be 8 before the blinds, since you are first to act...so 8X3=24%...a 24% chance that someone has a PP higher than yours...

i still usually like to raise, but if there a reraise, proceed cautiously

simplified from Phil Gordon's FTPA video...

[esmordan]

really thats a pretty high percentage of somone behind having a higher pp....i like the info mike please keep that comming...i would have never thought that having 99 with 8 ppl behind me its a 40% chance for someone to have a higher pp.....thats almost 1/2 the times i get delt 99 i am beat preflop...surprizing info but thanks

[ScareCrowAKA]

That does seem really high to me. Whats the math for basis of that calculation? I have always heard that there a a possible 169 starting hands in holde em. So I conclude 13 of them being pocket pairs. So one would be dealt a poket pair 13 out of 169 deals... with 9 players to a table; Those 2 statements dont add up to me... But then Again I have heard that a person will be dealt pocket aces once every 212 hands. If this is true then are not the odds of being dealt a poket pair 13 out of 212?... That don't match the 169 possible starting hands statement. Can someme tell me where I am going wrong here? Am I way off?

[eejit101]

Thats wrong.

Its about 6% i think, if that.

Ill find out though!

[ScareCrowAKA]

Well if the AA once in every 212 is true, then 13 in 212 is the odds of hitting a poket pair. Rounded 1 in 16. If there are 8 people left to act behind you then the chances of someone having any pair is 50%... This is about as far as I can get. Its been a long time since college algebra. I think the odds of someone having a pair are 50% and you have JJ then there are 9 pairs you beat and 4 pairs that beat or tie you. 9/4... I cant figure out where to go from here.

[ScareCrowAKA]

9/4 is 2.3 but that might just a coincidence

[ScareCrowAKA]

... The chance of 1 in 8 players having a pair is 50% and the odds of that pair being over yours is 1 to 3... ? Dont know how to figure all this into pre-flop odds... or if I am even right.

[thenutzaa1]

ok there is a total of 1,326 total combination preflop. (52x51)/2 = 1326
many of these hands are identical in value before the flop. For example, Ah Jh and As Js are identical, because each is a hand consisting of an ace and a jack of the same suit. There are 169 nonequivalent starting hands in hold 'em (13 pocket pairs, 13 × 12 / 2 = 78 suited hands and 78 unsuited hands; 13 + 78 + 78 = 169).

pocket pairs are 1/221 (P(pair) = 3/51 = 1/17) a pocket pair is dealt. if you are at a ten person table and first to act with 99 then a 40% is very possible.

[kingsnthahole]

ok made a little boo boo here, i haven't watched this video in a while but the actual way you figure this out is...

1. count the number of cards higher than your pair...so if its JJ...you get 3

2. count the number of players yet to act...8

3. multiply these numbers and divide by two...
3 x 8 /2= 12% chance someone has a higher pocket pair than you....this is not my math, only the principle of full tilt's Phil Gordon...

i feel its quite accurate because about 1/10 times i have JJ or TT i usually let it go preflop because of my spidey sense telling me someones got a monster underneath...

[ScareCrowAKA]

Tahnks for mapping out the math Nutz... I knew I was getting the results right but I didnt know the actual equations of how I was getting there... I knew I hear the 169 before, Ok... never thought about this like that. On a 10 person table being the first to act. The chances of someone else having a pocket pair is greater than 50%... didnt realize that before.

[thenutzaa1]

no problem glad to help.

let me know if you have anymore questions about math for poker.

[ritehere]

Good poker math, this will be one to contimplate