Derby Update

[klinkman]

Here's the Paulick Derby Index as of this week:
Rank Horse Points Last Week
1 Friesan Fire (11) 286 1
2 Pioneerof the Nile (9) 222 2
3 I Want Revenge (4) 212 3
4 Quality Road (3) 178 5
5 The Pamplemousse (1) 177 4
6 Old Fashioned 164 6
7 Dunkirk (1) 138 7
8 Desert Party (1) 118 8
9 Imperial Council (1) 61 9
10 Rachel Alexandra (1) 33 T10
10T Stardom Bound 33 T10
10T Chocolate Candy 33 13
13 Theregoesjojo 30 12
14 Papa Clem 24 14
15 Win Willy 19 15
16 Mafaaz (1) 12 --
17 Mr. Hot Stuff 9 19
18 Patena 9 16
18T Beethoven 8 17
20 Terrain 7 18

The Florida Derby is Tomorrow(today) and it should make the Derby picture clearer. Dunkirk makes his stakes debut, and attempts to pull the "Big Brown" derby setup (Maiden Race, Starter Allowance, Florida Derby). He has tough competition from Quality Road, Theregoesjojo and Beethoven, all of which are looking to cement their spot in the derby. For Dunkirk to qualify for the derby, he would have to finish 1st or 2nd in the Florida Derby or run another race in between the two.

The UAE derby is also Tomorrow and Desert Party is making his next start there. No other horse in that race is Triple Crown nominated.

[taylovesthebeatles]

There seriously wasn't a horse named Beethoven before now? I find that kind of hard to believe...

Can you explain to those of us (like me) who are just now reading these posts this year what the different numbers mean? Thanks!

[klinkman]

The Paulick Derby Index is similar to a top 25 poll for college sports. It should be a table, but it loses the formatting when I copy and paste it. The first number is the horse's rank, then the horses name, then the number in () is the number of first place votes. The next number is the total number of points, which is how they are ranked, and the final number is that horse's ranking last week.

The idea of it is to use a similar methodology to college sports polling to create a good general picture of what horses are likely to do well in the Derby.

[knowledge]

My pick to win Dunkirk by 2 1/2

[klinkman]

I'm not at all sold on Dunkirk. I'm not convinced he'll finish top 2 in the Florida Derby, and without that he won't have enough graded earnings to qualify for the Derby. We'll know soon though.

[klinkman]

Quick Update-Beethoven has been injured and will not run today. He appears to be off the derby trail.