Great hand to analyze

[$o$o$ucce$$ful]

This is from a friend and he wanted me to have everyone analyze this and tell him what he should've done.
PokerStars Game #, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2009/03/23 14:23:38 ET
Table '150193107 5' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: ilovemyriver (2000 in chips)
Seat 2: enoobs (1980 in chips)
Seat 3: Akislanov (1980 in chips)
Seat 4: novatoj (2040 in chips)
Seat 5: nia5649 (2000 in chips)
Seat 6: MK1177 (2000 in chips)
Seat 7: Sebiforce (2000 in chips)
Seat 8: Grützwurst78 (2000 in chips)
Seat 9: mystery2000 (2000 in chips)
Akislanov: posts small blind 10
novatoj: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ilovemyriver [Qd Qh]
nia5649: folds
MK1177: folds
Sebiforce: folds
Grützwurst78: folds
mystery2000: folds
ilovemyriver: raises 40 to 60
enoobs: folds
Akislanov: folds
novatoj: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [Th Qc 8h]
novatoj: checks

[$o$o$ucce$$ful]

I'll start with this. You have to bet this, and bet it big. This is a terrible raise preflop. Only 2x BB which gives the possibility of a hand like J9 to call or a hand like 910.
Not to meantion we have the possibility of a flush draw out there.
Ughhhhh so many things to tear apart in this hand.
First of all lets say he called with a 9 in his hand and now has the open ended straight draw.
The odds of him winning the pot are
Actually lets give him the worst possible hand without having the straight already which would be the 7h9h.
The probabilities of you winning the hand with top set now is only
59.39%
This is what is wrong with underbetting preflop!!!!!
I dont know how to stress this enough!
You cannot underbet a big pair because then you are inviting people to suck out on you. SO many things wrong with this hand.....but now that we're stuck in this situation we have to BET BIG.

[eejit101]

I'll start with this. You have to bet this, and bet it big. This is a terrible raise preflop. Only 2x BB which gives the possibility of a hand like J9 to call or a hand like 910.
Not to meantion we have the possibility of a flush draw out there.
Ughhhhh so many things to tear apart in this hand.
First of all lets say he called with a 9 in his hand and now has the open ended straight draw.
The odds of him winning the pot are
Actually lets give him the worst possible hand without having the straight already which would be the 7h9h.
The probabilities of you winning the hand with top set now is only
59.39%
This is what is wrong with underbetting preflop!!!!!
I dont know how to stress this enough!
You cannot underbet a big pair because then you are inviting people to suck out on you. SO many things wrong with this hand.....but now that we're stuck in this situation we have to BET BIG.

Dear god, this is not a good way to go.

1 - 3x BB is fine. raising to 60 from 20 is standard.
2 - You have top set.
3 - Yes you have to bet this flop. There is 130 in the pot, so im a fan of around 100 here. 3/4 of the pot is enough.

4 - The villain here may well have a draw, or a straight, or whatever, but you will have outs to negate any possible winning hand he has.
5 - If i was 60% to win a hand all in with top set, then i am all in. 60% = favourite. Nuff said.
6 - Underbetting? 3x BB isnt underbetting ( i cannot say that enough)

IMO the flop raise is fine, and the flop isnt great but it gives us a chance to stack the opponent on a draw or someting.

Now say we bet 100 and he raises, we push this every time. We are 90% of the time ahead, and if behind, we have many outs to win with, 7 so far, and 10 on the river.

[$o$o$ucce$$ful]

Dear god, this is not a good way to go.

1 - 3x BB is fine. raising to 60 from 20 is standard.
2 - You have top set.
3 - Yes you have to bet this flop. There is 130 in the pot, so im a fan of around 100 here. 3/4 of the pot is enough.

4 - The villain here may well have a draw, or a straight, or whatever, but you will have outs to negate any possible winning hand he has.
5 - If i was 60% to win a hand all in with top set, then i am all in. 60% = favourite. Nuff said.
6 - Underbetting? 3x BB isnt underbetting ( i cannot say that enough)

IMO the flop raise is fine, and the flop isnt great but it gives us a chance to stack the opponent on a draw or someting.

Now say we bet 100 and he raises, we push this every time. We are 90% of the time ahead, and if behind, we have many outs to win with, 7 so far, and 10 on the river.

You contradict yourself so much. You say we cant call all in with a lot of outs but yet we can put our stack in the middle if we're beat only to count on the outs we have? 7 outs is NOT alot of outs and never will be considered alot of outs.

[kingsnthahole]

first off, im going to have to agree with eejit here, if the guy raises all in on the flop on a draw, im still calling with top set, bc you will still pair the board somehow about 30% of the time...if he has J9 oh well he had you, but why get your money in on a flop like this personally, im betting about half the pot, if he calls and another card to fill the flush or str8 comes, u check it down, if he shoves, you let it go, big whoop...if he value bets it, you call...if he bets 3/4 of the pot, you probably fold unless hes a LAG player then id consider calling

[eejit101]

We can call all in because we do not know he has us beat. Im saying worst case is he has the straight. More thn likely he doesnt, and i was coutning our redraw outs.