Not moaning its a bad beat but analysis here is fun plz.

I have 1035 chips, and UTG, blinds 50/100.5

Dealt to me AsAc. I raise to 345 chips. Called once by UTG+1(GATachMom)

Flop Ad 3d 7d. I push for 700.

Called within 1.5 seconds.

She flips ThTd.

Preflop... meh, but i dont raise UTG with a hand that TT isnt at BEST racing. I only raise UTG with AKs, and QQ/KK/AA. I limp/fold everything else.


Ok, turn Jh, river 4d.

Im out, gg me. (again)


Im wondering if anyone sees the out situation here.


Lets look at my hand possibilities. AA/KK/QQ. AK/AQ/AJ/AT. KQs.

Ok, say i have AA, i have top set, she is drawing to at BEST 9 outs. = 25% including my redraw outs.


Say i have KK/QQ/JJ with a diamond. Drawing to 2 outs, with me having redraw outs = 2.5%

Say i have AK/AQ/AJ with a diamond - 2.5% again. Only the tens help. As i have the btter flush draw.

Say i have KQdmds, or 2 diamonds = Your drawing to 0.2% (runner runner full house)

Say (very unlikely if people ever put thought into an opponents hand) AK-A2 with no diamond. Therefore gives you 11 outs, still only 44%.

Average this out and you get 14% odds to win vs my possible range.

Pot odds - 2-1. 2 to 1 is NOT 18% equity.


Im not steaming (well i am a little) but....

Surely the winner of this hand realises that this in the long run (not just one lucky hand) is a hugely BAD play to be making? If you were first to act post-flop, a push here is fine, but not calling one. Your ahead of NOTHING i push with. And your at upmost best 40% to win the hand. And moret han likely as low as 2% if you imagine the hands i might have.


I dont get it.....

Thoughts people?