Again - WTF!

[eejit101]

Not moaning its a bad beat but analysis here is fun plz.

I have 1035 chips, and UTG, blinds 50/100.5

Dealt to me AsAc. I raise to 345 chips. Called once by UTG+1(GATachMom)

Flop Ad 3d 7d. I push for 700.

Called within 1.5 seconds.

She flips ThTd.

Preflop... meh, but i dont raise UTG with a hand that TT isnt at BEST racing. I only raise UTG with AKs, and QQ/KK/AA. I limp/fold everything else.


Ok, turn Jh, river 4d.

Im out, gg me. (again)


Im wondering if anyone sees the out situation here.


Lets look at my hand possibilities. AA/KK/QQ. AK/AQ/AJ/AT. KQs.

Ok, say i have AA, i have top set, she is drawing to at BEST 9 outs. = 25% including my redraw outs.


Say i have KK/QQ/JJ with a diamond. Drawing to 2 outs, with me having redraw outs = 2.5%

Say i have AK/AQ/AJ with a diamond - 2.5% again. Only the tens help. As i have the btter flush draw.

Say i have KQdmds, or 2 diamonds = Your drawing to 0.2% (runner runner full house)

Say (very unlikely if people ever put thought into an opponents hand) AK-A2 with no diamond. Therefore gives you 11 outs, still only 44%.

Average this out and you get 14% odds to win vs my possible range.

Pot odds - 2-1. 2 to 1 is NOT 18% equity.


Im not steaming (well i am a little) but....

Surely the winner of this hand realises that this in the long run (not just one lucky hand) is a hugely BAD play to be making? If you were first to act post-flop, a push here is fine, but not calling one. Your ahead of NOTHING i push with. And your at upmost best 40% to win the hand. And moret han likely as low as 2% if you imagine the hands i might have.


I dont get it.....

Thoughts people?

[bkniefel]

It's suprising what pride can do to a person.(3/4 of why I was knocked down)

Calling with a 10 High expected flush is based off of this concept...

Inteligence would note to fold, but pride is within us all.

What makes a person fold or call is determined to their experience and profits in my opinion..

[eejit101]

Yeah but you cant justify not thinking through a hand by not having enough experience, this is all basic pot knowledge.... i can teach it you if you give me an hour of watching you play. Itll increase your win rate at poker by a HUGE amount. (serious offer if anyone wants it)

[bkniefel]

Of course. Pride takes away that rational thought though.

War, Sports, Religion etc

I would be open to receive a lesson.

[eejit101]

Sweet, i love teaching math and moves.


Anyone with more thoughts ont he hand plz?

[klinkman]

I dont think your range is as narrow as you think it is.
By that I think a bluff or small pair is possible. The call still is probably bad but not as bad as you make it.

[ScreamBeautiful]

Sweet, i love teaching math and moves.


Anyone with more thoughts ont he hand plz?

honestly eejit, you didnt play the hand wrong at allll.
if u flop a set, especially aces, pushing seems like the logical thing to do.
however, because there was 3 diamonds on the board, that gave her incentive to call because she was betting on a diamond or a 10..which in most cases..a 10 isnt too hard to come by lol. anyway, the fact that she actually HIT her last diamond was pure luck..that hand didn't take any skill on her part,because she was just hoping she would hit the flush, and unfortunately for you she did.

just bad luck.

[ScareCrowAKA]

Was it a cash game? I don't know what you were playing, but here is my perspective from somewhat of a new online player. I might have done the same thing...

In a online tournament (not cash and def not live). Heres why- I see it hit sooo often online its scary and almost a 50/50 toss up in my mind. I would have figured you had Ace something or bluffing and just went for it hoping to get lucky. I know its a bad play, I know its retarded, (but only if I lose, lol) I would def not make it a habbit to do this. But if I was feeling it in the situation I was in, I might take the shot...

However this is my perspective based on playing freerolls only and a couple of 3-4$ large field sats from my freeroll winnings.

[eejit101]

its called being a fish. they probably thought u didnt have crap. happens sorry that it happened to you . i will pray for your healing.

Question - How many times, and i mean EVER, have i or anyone decent raised from UTG (under the gun) to 3.5x BB with NOTHING? Any ace, and overpair. I mean wtf can i have that TT beats? Answer - nothing.

Was it a cash game? I don't know what you were playing, but here is my perspective from somewhat of a new online player. I might have done the same thing...

In a online tournament (not cash and def not live). Heres why- I see it hit sooo often online its scary and almost a 50/50 toss up in my mind. I would have figured you had Ace something or bluffing and just went for it hoping to get lucky. I know its a bad play, I know its retarded, (but only if I lose, lol) I would def not make it a habbit to do this. But if I was feeling it in the situation I was in, I might take the shot...

However this is my perspective based on playing freerolls only and a couple of 3-4$ large field sats from my freeroll winnings.

1 - It was a tourney.
2 - You see it hit often? Dear god, i see it hit exactly the amount of times its meant to hit.

IM NOT BOTHERED ABOUT IT HITTING!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Im curious about if anyone actually puts people on hands, or contemplates here they are in a hand. I mean even is the opponent here called with a flush draw, its not the worst play. Buts its a 9 out draw to something that ISNT EVEN THE NUT HAND. Also it could be drawing dead to no outs as i have a bigger flush card and a diamond means i win too.


How do you not get what im asking?


Please read what im about to write, as this is what i was going for.



Ok, ill reverse it, ill answer my own question ...

IMO The villain here called preflop with TT for 1/5 of their stack. Not a bad play as it means they can get away from their hand rather than pushing preflop and being dominated (as would have been the case) or can fold to a flop which has an overcard/s to the pair of Tens they hold.

But lets think, the person who raised the hand from UTG knows about odds, they know about genereic poker plays. They surely wont raise with anything that they expect to be beaten, or they would have pushed for the fold equity (chances of blind stealing) and just to get it all in to avoid post flop play (I hate doing this, as post flop i can outplay people)

So, reading this hand history id assume the raiser had a premium hand (JJ/QQ/KK/AA AQs/AK/AKs) And that TT here is never ahead. It is racing 3 possible hands, and hugely dominated by 4. Id also assume the raiser had the ability to play post flop correctly to extract the value from their hand, and with their willingness to commit chips preflop (nearly a third of their stack) that they are going to see the hand through, so bluffing them out is going to be unlikely as they will be getting 3-1 minimum on any call, with more odds later if more people call.

Now calling with TT UTG+1 is difficult, as you still have 8 people to act, and in math terms its likely somsone has a similar stregtnh hand to TT. So that factors in a new variable... there may not be just 2 of us in preflop.

But it stays heads up between Relax and Yellow, and we see a flop with 700 in the pot.

Flop comes A 7 3 all diamonds. Relax pushes all in. So now we can assign a simpler range. He has my Tens beat, no doubt about it. Noone bluffs with no fold equity (chances of winning the pot without showing down), it makes no sense. So lets assume he has JJ+ or a pair/set.

Now we can rule out 777 and 333, as we already KNOW he didnt raise with that from 1st position preflop, as thats insane, and the player isnt dumb.

So that leaves a set of aces, a pair of aces, a flush draw, or a comination of a pair and a flush draw.

Now - All of those hands are behind Tens.

That already makes Tens an insta fold.

However, Yellow has the Ten of diamonds, this increases chances of winning surely?

Answer - No. The UTG player would not raise with any Ace or pocket pair with a lower diamond than the Ten of dimaonds. We can safely assume that the player with the Tens is drawing to only a flush, or a set. With the possibility Relax has AA, this becomes less advantageous, and the Ten may not help. However, Relax may have AK, so the ten does help, but if its Ace King with the King of diamonds, Yellow now only has 2 outs, so calling 700 to win 1,400 with only 2 outs is insanity.

So, with no hands that TT is techincally in any way ahead of here, TT is an easy fold. The best outcome is that Relax has AK or AQ with no diamond, and is betting the flop so as for draws not to chase. Remember, this is best case scenario. In a perfect world, TT is now drawing to 11 outs (the 9 flush cards, and the 2 Tens) 11 outs = 44%.

So with odds of 2 to 1 on the call, this call becomes correct.

However....

Factor in the fact that this is only best case, and Relax is unlikely to have a hand as weak as AQ or AK here with no diamond, this decreases the chance of winning to 15%, as i already stated. So now TT becomes one of the easiest folds ever.





Ok, analysis over.

FYI - I can think all this in about 20 seconds while playing a hand.

For those at my table tonight, remember i had AQ and the flop came Q 8 4, rainbow? I check, PokerKitty raised, and some other player reraised? I had AQ that hand, and on an Q 8 4 flop, id imagine nearly everyone pushes.

However, i thought it through. PokerKitty called a min raise preflop, so she can have anything. The guy who min raised preflop is raising the action ont he flop. I immediately assume top pair or better. I discounted an underpair, and i discount QJ/QT hands (as they arent raisable preflop). So im left with KQ/AQ/KK/AA/44/88/QQ.

Now, i have AQ, so im taking up some of the likelyhood that he also has AQ. Pokerkitty also bet the flop, indicating she may have a queen. So i assign a range for Kitty as have AQ/KQ/or maybe A8, and assume i am ahead of her. Then the guy who raised is acting. His raise shows he isnt scared of Kittys bet. So i can discount the hands ive said. I then start thinking with the min raise and the way he played it, he has a big hand, or a pair.

If he has KK or AA im drawing very thin, and im getting 3-1 odds with the implication he will call my push, but still, that isnt enough. If he has a set of 4's or 8's im drawing to a 5% shot. Which is stupid.

So i lay down AQ on a Q48 flop.

Pokerkitty pushes, and the re-raiser calls.

PK shows QJ (i read that right, got her hand spot on and knew i was ahead)
Raiser shows 88 (again, correct read, as i knew i was beat but was unsure by what)


So me working that out saved me my tourney life.



Does having this kind of knowledge not make some people want to take this seriously?

How many times have some of you played jsut NDNPT games this season? Answer - 20.

20 tourneys, if you can assign ranges and work out hands as i did in tonights game, even if its just once a game where the opportunity comes along that will save you your tourney life, this is an "extra life" in every tourney. Its a free rebuy as you wont get stacked. Its the knowledge of knowing your beat, having no pot odds to call and try and win, and generally saving yourself from busting, increasing your chances of winning HUGELY.



If one person is interested ill spend some time with them watching them play 1 or 2 SnG's or MTT's, and explain thought processes and odds with them. (If doing this increases your winrate by 5%, thats a HUGE amount. If somsone could increase my ROI by 5% id snap their hand off, as thats a lot of money.)

What you will learn is pot odds, equity, fold equity, hand values and position, bet sizing, draw %'s, how to assign ranges e.t.c

I just searches online, and a player who is cashing just 2% of the time more often than me in sit and gos is charging $200 for ONE HOUR doing the same as what i would do.

And i would do it for free, as i love you guys, i love our games, and i love the forum.


Just an offer, if anyone wants to go for it, let me know and we can sort something out (MSN will be needed tho, or phone calls/skype whatever)


I just want more people from this forum to post hands and have insight into them! Itll make learning about poker while we are playing it so much more fun.

(Have we not noticed ive won 4 games so far from 13 played? (i sat out of the rest) All 4 are buyins. Im only 2nd cos i cant win every hand im ahead in freerolls, as i proved again today! And the fact Arsenal is a damn good player. All 4 are in buyins, with good prizes. I can show you how i won, and what helped. Knowing that could have earnt you $200 from a $0 investment so far, with more to come im sure)

up to you!


P.S im not bragging in any way here, or being an ***. Im just trying to help ANYONE who is serious about winning money consistently at this game. I dont use my head all the time, and i wish i did, but im sure other people will vouch if i put my true head into the game (as i was doing today), the only way youll lose is with KK vs AA, or set vs set, or flush vs flush or something, or to lose when you got it all in as a favourite. Which is fine, if you get all in ahead, and lose, your playing it fine.



Gl, respond about the hand please, and feel free to let me know!

Thanks

[Lilred36]

man was sad cause I fell asleep, but with all this crying kinda glad I did, suck it up BRIT!!!

[eejit101]

I ask for analysis.... i get this!

man was sad cause I fell asleep, but with all this crying kinda glad I did, suck it up BRIT!!!

Bah

[$o$o$ucce$$ful]

Not moaning its a bad beat but analysis here is fun plz.

I have 1035 chips, and UTG, blinds 50/100.5

Dealt to me AsAc. I raise to 345 chips. Called once by UTG+1(GATachMom)

Flop Ad 3d 7d. I push for 700.

Called within 1.5 seconds.

She flips ThTd.

Preflop... meh, but i dont raise UTG with a hand that TT isnt at BEST racing. I only raise UTG with AKs, and QQ/KK/AA. I limp/fold everything else.


Ok, turn Jh, river 4d.

Im out, gg me. (again)


Im wondering if anyone sees the out situation here.


Lets look at my hand possibilities. AA/KK/QQ. AK/AQ/AJ/AT. KQs.

Ok, say i have AA, i have top set, she is drawing to at BEST 9 outs. = 25% including my redraw outs.


Say i have KK/QQ/JJ with a diamond. Drawing to 2 outs, with me having redraw outs = 2.5%

Say i have AK/AQ/AJ with a diamond - 2.5% again. Only the tens help. As i have the btter flush draw.

Say i have KQdmds, or 2 diamonds = Your drawing to 0.2% (runner runner full house)

Say (very unlikely if people ever put thought into an opponents hand) AK-A2 with no diamond. Therefore gives you 11 outs, still only 44%.

Average this out and you get 14% odds to win vs my possible range.

Pot odds - 2-1. 2 to 1 is NOT 18% equity.


Im not steaming (well i am a little) but....

Surely the winner of this hand realises that this in the long run (not just one lucky hand) is a hugely BAD play to be making? If you were first to act post-flop, a push here is fine, but not calling one. Your ahead of NOTHING i push with. And your at upmost best 40% to win the hand. And moret han likely as low as 2% if you imagine the hands i might have.


I dont get it.....

Thoughts people?

First I must bemoan how terrible a push is here. You made it KNOWN that you didnt have a diamond by automatically push that flop. Instead i might min. bet. See if she calls or raises. If she raises then you push and theres nothing you can do about it. But if she just flat calls and you see the turn. Its a blank for her. Now instead of looking for 9 outs twice. Shes only looking for 9 outs once. That great GREATLY lowers the chances that she calls. Just my two cents. I wouldve called in her position as well.

[ffcowboy76]

Wow, eejit, you went deep there. All of the analysis is correct. The best players in the world do this with every hand they are in. All of the big cashes I've had during my poker life have been when I've done what you did as perfectly as possible.

Looking at the hand I'm gonna say that the villain was purely fishing for a possible flush that may or may not win the hand. It's as bad a play as I can think of. I'm unsure of the villains stack size, but calling around 3/5's your stack to POSSIBLE win a hand is insane.

Now having said this, I'm going to assume that it was a freeroll. With that said, all of the theory can be throw out the window, even though it is very valid. I avoid freerolls like the plague because there is no fear of losing money. People don't play a freeroll like they do a buy in game, solely because they are risking nothing. If you are paying $10 to buy in to a tournament, there is something at risk, meaning people tend to care more. That's what it comes down to, caring. On a side note, I've found that people are willing to risk a bunch chasing a possible bounty too.

Eejit, you played the hand correct, and made the correct analysis (even though you knew the cards) that the villain should of made. I would love to sit down and get a lesson, even though I feel I'm a sound player. I tend to have some trouble making the correct read 100% of the time.

[$o$o$ucce$$ful]

Cowboy I dont agree with you, at all. I think that your analysis of this hand is way off. I would type out my whole explanation why but I am not quite sure you want to hear it to be honest.

[ffcowboy76]

Fire away.....I wanna hear what you got to say. I don't care if you say I'm a donk. Words don't hurt me.

[eejit101]

Firstly....

First I must bemoan how terrible a push is here. You made it KNOWN that you didnt have a diamond by automatically push that flop. Instead i might min. bet. See if she calls or raises. If she raises then you push and theres nothing you can do about it. But if she just flat calls and you see the turn. Its a blank for her. Now instead of looking for 9 outs twice. Shes only looking for 9 outs once. That great GREATLY lowers the chances that she calls. Just my two cents. I wouldve called in her position as well.

I made it known i didnt have a diamond? How? Read the chip stacks. Min betting means nothing, i cant fold if i min bet. Plus min betting gives her additional equity.

You said she is looking for 9 outs twice? No she isnt. She is looking for anything from 0 outs to 11 outs twice. Averageable at 3 outs. This is assuming youve takent he care to read my post and realise we are assiging me a range here.

If you call there too......... wtf? Your applying to be a pro on a new site?

Fire away.....I wanna hear what you got to say. I don't care if you say I'm a donk. Words don't hurt me.

Me 2 please!!! And say what u like!



And ffcowboy -

1 - Ill happily do it for SnG's/MTT's, just not cash games. Imt he first to admit i am not as good as you at cash games.

2 - I evaluated the hand from the point of a person who cannot see the hands. I did it impartially!

[$o$o$ucce$$ful]

Fire away.....I wanna hear what you got to say. I don't care if you say I'm a donk. Words don't hurt me.

Not at all. I think, frmo what i hear, you are a very solid poker player. AcAs on an Ad xd xd board is such a tricky hand to play. If you go all in you are going to likely get called by Kd Qd Jd Td and MAYBE 9d 8d. Look at it from the villians perspective.
First of all the raise preflop is perfect. Exactly what I would have made it.
The problem I have with the hand is Post-Flop. So post flop you have 700 chips which equals 7BBs left so I think no matter what all the chips are going into the middle. I have the problem with how you do it.
From my perspective when I play with players, when I see a player push all in with OVER 5 BBs. Its a dont call me bet. Im thinking that they have a hand better then mine MAYBE but i definately have outs and if I have the right price to call it then I sure as hell will.
My suggestion would have been Post Flop we have top set and redraws to a boat if the opponent flopped the flush. I bet 200. SO SO SO SO SO SO much less then pot but once again I think what I would think if a person did that.
With a bet of 200 you are giving yourself this image.
Please call me or raise me so I can get all these chips in the middle. That is the image you want to portray because you are feeling the exact opposite.
If you bet 200 villian should be weary as to why you wouldnt just push all in. If i was villian I would be thinking either you flopped the nuts or have AK with the K of diamonds and I am drawing to two outs if you dont hit your flush first.
2nd good thing about betting 200 is if villian does call the turn was a complete blank for them. So now instead of looking at 11 outs two times. Your looking at 11 outs 1 time which greatly decreases your percentages for winning the hand.
This is when you push the last 500. Boom all in. Villian MAY still call but I can gurantee you it will be a much much much harder call then the over bet on the flop would have been.
Thanks guys
LM