Again - WTF!

[eejit101]

Not moaning its a bad beat but analysis here is fun plz.

I have 1035 chips, and UTG, blinds 50/100.5

Dealt to me AsAc. I raise to 345 chips. Called once by UTG+1(GATachMom)

Flop Ad 3d 7d. I push for 700.

Called within 1.5 seconds.

She flips ThTd.

Preflop... meh, but i dont raise UTG with a hand that TT isnt at BEST racing. I only raise UTG with AKs, and QQ/KK/AA. I limp/fold everything else.


Ok, turn Jh, river 4d.

Im out, gg me. (again)


Im wondering if anyone sees the out situation here.


Lets look at my hand possibilities. AA/KK/QQ. AK/AQ/AJ/AT. KQs.

Ok, say i have AA, i have top set, she is drawing to at BEST 9 outs. = 25% including my redraw outs.


Say i have KK/QQ/JJ with a diamond. Drawing to 2 outs, with me having redraw outs = 2.5%

Say i have AK/AQ/AJ with a diamond - 2.5% again. Only the tens help. As i have the btter flush draw.

Say i have KQdmds, or 2 diamonds = Your drawing to 0.2% (runner runner full house)

Say (very unlikely if people ever put thought into an opponents hand) AK-A2 with no diamond. Therefore gives you 11 outs, still only 44%.

Average this out and you get 14% odds to win vs my possible range.

Pot odds - 2-1. 2 to 1 is NOT 18% equity.


Im not steaming (well i am a little) but....

Surely the winner of this hand realises that this in the long run (not just one lucky hand) is a hugely BAD play to be making? If you were first to act post-flop, a push here is fine, but not calling one. Your ahead of NOTHING i push with. And your at upmost best 40% to win the hand. And moret han likely as low as 2% if you imagine the hands i might have.


I dont get it.....

Thoughts people?

[ffcowboy76]

$o, the problem with betting so small is on the turn, when I do push, it gives them closer to the correct odds to call. The smaller I make the turn bet, the more apt they are to call. If you want to tell me a push for UNDER pot is the incorrect play there, I have a hard time believing you. I'm the last person who will tell someone to push with less than the nuts, but in that case the push is the ONLY option. If the stack was bigger, where I could put in a pot sized bet on the turn, then I say your theory is correct. Seeing as the history displays that eejit's flop bet was UNDER pot, there is no other action that gets the player to fold. In the case of a freeroll, maybe eejit should of checked it down....LMAO.

[eejit101]

Time ot get hated - lets pick this apart.

Not at all. I think, frmo what i hear, you are a very solid poker player. AcAs on an Ad xd xd board is such a tricky hand to play. If you go all in you are going to likely get called by Kd Qd Jd Td and MAYBE 9d 8d. Look at it from the villians perspective.
First of all the raise preflop is perfect. Exactly what I would have made it.
The problem I have with the hand is Post-Flop. So post flop you have 700 chips which equals 7BBs left so I think no matter what all the chips are going into the middle. I have the problem with how you do it.
From my perspective when I play with players, when I see a player push all in with OVER 5 BBs. Its a dont call me bet. Im thinking that they have a hand better then mine MAYBE but i definately have outs and if I have the right price to call it then I sure as hell will.
My suggestion would have been Post Flop we have top set and redraws to a boat if the opponent flopped the flush. I bet 200. SO SO SO SO SO SO much less then pot but once again I think what I would think if a person did that.
With a bet of 200 you are giving yourself this image.
Please call me or raise me so I can get all these chips in the middle. That is the image you want to portray because you are feeling the exact opposite.
If you bet 200 villian should be weary as to why you wouldnt just push all in. If i was villian I would be thinking either you flopped the nuts or have AK with the K of diamonds and I am drawing to two outs if you dont hit your flush first.
2nd good thing about betting 200 is if villian does call the turn was a complete blank for them. So now instead of looking at 11 outs two times. Your looking at 11 outs 1 time which greatly decreases your percentages for winning the hand.
This is when you push the last 500. Boom all in. Villian MAY still call but I can gurantee you it will be a much much much harder call then the over bet on the flop would have been.
Thanks guys
LM

1 - he is solid and good.
2 - I wanted a call from those hands?
3 - I bet 700 as i cant bet less, if she raises i cant fold, im not giving her free cards and i hate giving people odds.
4 - 200 is a scared bet. Its also stupid, as if she calls 200 on the flop, she will call 500 on the turn without thinking. Get it all in and know where you are.
5 - Any flush draw does what i do, as does all the hand options i listed, and thats all i could have, so she shoulda thought, and assumed i had one of them ,and folded.
6 - Your only saying she is looking at 11 outs twice because you know the hands.

DISCOUNT THE FACT I HAVE ACES AND THINK ABOUT WHAT I COULD HAVE! What is TT beating or drawing to a better hand than? Answer - nothing aside from AA/AK no diamonds! And no way somsone reads that from my play.


And wth your 2nd post - at no time did i give odds to anyone to chase anything. Only to call and be bheind and have to suckout

[$o$o$ucce$$ful]

$o, the problem with betting so small is on the turn, when I do push, it gives them closer to the correct odds to call. The smaller I make the turn bet, the more apt they are to call. If you want to tell me a push for UNDER pot is the incorrect play there, I have a hard time believing you. I'm the last person who will tell someone to push with less than the nuts, but in that case the push is the ONLY option. If the stack was bigger, where I could put in a pot sized bet on the turn, then I say your theory is correct. Seeing as the history displays that eejit's flop bet was UNDER pot, there is no other action that gets the player to fold. In the case of a freeroll, maybe eejit should of checked it down....LMAO.

Its all about how villian thinks. If I was villian and I thought I had 11 outs twice. I would call being a 70/30 underdog IF and i mean IF i was getting the right price. 500 is still alot, especially if the stacks are short so its by no means an easy call. but now villaiin would be looking at 11 outs once. making them a 90/10 dog. Despite everythign I say, more then likely all the chips were going to get in the middle no matter what strategy was used.

[$o$o$ucce$$ful]

Time ot get hated - lets pick this apart.



1 - he is solid and good.
2 - I wanted a call from those hands?
3 - I bet 700 as i cant bet less, if she raises i cant fold, im not giving her free cards and i hate giving people odds.
4 - 200 is a scared bet. Its also stupid, as if she calls 200 on the flop, she will call 500 on the turn without thinking. Get it all in and know where you are.
5 - Any flush draw does what i do, as does all the hand options i listed, and thats all i could have, so she shoulda thought, and assumed i had one of them ,and folded.
6 - Your only saying she is looking at 11 outs twice because you know the hands.

DISCOUNT THE FACT I HAVE ACES AND THINK ABOUT WHAT I COULD HAVE! What is TT beating or drawing to a better hand than? Answer - nothing aside from AA/AK no diamonds! And no way somsone reads that from my play.


And wth your 2nd post - at no time did i give odds to anyone to chase anything. Only to call and be bheind and have to suckout

Stop switchign it up, is it a girl or a guy. That makes a huge difference.

[eejit101]

Its all about how villian thinks. If I was villian and I thought I had 11 outs twice. I would call being a 70/30 underdog IF and i mean IF i was getting the right price. 500 is still alot, especially if the stacks are short so its by no means an easy call. but now villaiin would be looking at 11 outs once. making them a 90/10 dog. Despite everythign I say, more then likely all the chips were going to get in the middle no matter what strategy was used.

1 - Its a girl.

11 outs twice = 40/60 underdog.

11 outs once = 20/80 underdog.

Please learn odds!

And yes they were, but i dont think you get the meaning of this hand being posted.

Read my long *** post again, and tell me if anything in there is not either fact/solid logic/ or genius reading.

[ffcowboy76]

Let's look at the numbers.....

Eejit raised to 345 and got a call. That is 690. The SB (50) and BB (100) fold. Total pot is 840. Flop hits. Eejit bet's 700 giving the calling odds of 700 into 1540 which is 2.1 to 1. Flush draw requires 3.1 to 1 to make the call. Now, given that the player has the pocket pair, you can drop that to a bit less than 3.1 to 1, if you think you are ahead and it's now a redraw. Given that we know that the villain is against a huge hand there, they are more looking for better than 3.1 to 1 to call.

Now if eejit bets 200 on the turn the pot is no 1040 and the villain has more than the odds to call. Then I push on the turn for 500 into a pot of 1240. Giving 2.5 to 1 for the river card and a hint of weakness. This makes it easier to make the call.

[eejit101]

Eejit101 = loves people who get pot odds.

That is all.

Id so be g4y for cowboy right now

[$o$o$ucce$$ful]

1 - Its a girl.

11 outs twice = 40/60 underdog.

11 outs once = 20/80 underdog.

Please learn odds!

And yes they were, but i dont think you get the meaning of this hand being posted.

Read my long *** post again, and tell me if anything in there is not either fact/solid logic/ or genius reading.

Your a moron. First of all stop saying the villian doesnt know you have an ace. SHE KNOWS YOU HAVE AN ACE YOU PLAYED IT SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOO obvious. not to meantion she probably either put you on A. Aces or B. A smaller pair then tens with the flush draw.
I myself wouldve put you on AK with NO diamond and snap called you because I run good and wouldve hit the diamond. This is NOT that bad of a call. In fact I think it is more then standard for her to call this with the 10 of diamonds in hand. This is a standard NL HoldEm Hand, that does not require TAHT much thought. It happens, she called she hit she won. Sometimes people call just to see what your playing with. And you said you wanted a diamond to call you? I sure as hell hope not? I wouldve wanted to be called by a hand like AQ with no diamond.
To say you wanted to be called by a diamond is nothing short of idiodic beause you were only a 60/40 favorite. WOW.

[$o$o$ucce$$ful]

Oh and by the way I just did calculations on the poker odds calculator. Indeed on the flop the tens are a 70/30 underdog. Tyty

[ffcowboy76]

Ok, I'm getting tired of this argument. It was a poor call by the player. They didn't have the odds to call, even chasing the flush, even knowing where eejit is. I don't make that call there, seeing as there are other hands he could push hard with that beat me. We all know he had AA, but he could of had AK with the K of diamonds. Now I'm drawing to 2 outs, seeing as the flush is negated by the K of diamonds in eejits hand. Knowing he could have AA or AK with the diamond redraw, I can't possible make the call on the flop.

[eejit101]

1 - i am not a moron, but your entitled to your opinion.

Now lets slam you down again with some logical thought.

So by raising UTG to 345 i am automatically assigned an ace? Do YOU EVEN KNOW ME? I dont raise **** under the gun. You know my range, ive played millions of games here. I even tell ppl my ranges at the damn table. UTG is QQ+/AQs+. So i could haveQQ or KK. I could have a diamond, i could have aces. I could NOt have 99, a clever person works that out in 0.2 seconds.

Now -im ignoring the fact you said its obvious i have an ace, and moving on, as it isnt, and someone who understands poker knows that.

2 - She didnt put me on anything. She snap called. She didnt evaluate my hand after the push. She didnt have a read on me.

3 - If you run good then congrats

4 - This is a horrible call, ive outlined the reasons and done ALL the math possible, using an equity calculation, along with other odds implications.

5 - This is an awesome thread, its asking a million questions about one hand.

6 - You dont call 2/3 of your stack to see what im playing with.

7 - I wanted a diamond to call me yes. I have the top set, she has 9 clean outs if she has a diamond. I have redraw outs. So probably about 7 outs total. This is 30% max.

30% is not 60/40 favourite. WOW you suck at maths.

I wanted to be called by any hand that wasnt a flush. If she had a flush, then fair enough, id question the preflop call, but still, what can you do.


And dont even dare insult me when i put THIS much effort into teaching a valuable poker insight/lesson in this thread.I could post this anywhere and any serious/knowledgeable player would read it and either agree, or learn something from it.

If you didnt learn anything from what i wrote (some of it is f***ing advancesd stuff), then your clearly better than I am at this game, and you should comment instead of me.



Edit - ffcowboy gets it entirely. Good post above mine

[$o$o$ucce$$ful]

Ok, I'm getting tired of this argument. It was a poor call by the player. They didn't have the odds to call, even chasing the flush, even knowing where eejit is. I don't make that call there, seeing as there are other hands he could push hard with that beat me. We all know he had AA, but he could of had AK with the K of diamonds. Now I'm drawing to 2 outs, seeing as the flush is negated by the K of diamonds in eejits hand. Knowing he could have AA or AK with the diamond redraw, I can't possible make the call on the flop.

And thats why players like me will make money while passive players like you always complain when players like me call and hit. TyTy end of argument. In no way shape or form is this a bad call. An over bet on that flop.
Not to meantion why in the HELL someone would ever push with AK with the K of diamonds.
You have top pair top poss. kicker. with the nut flush draw. If you push that you are an idiot.

[ffcowboy76]

Now with all of that said, here is a new theory to consider. In one of the many books I read by Sklansky he talks about outs that you are unsure if they help your hand or not. They are counted as 1/2 outs. Therefore, looking at this hand and what eejit could of had, she should of done her odds calcs using 5.5 outs. 1 out for the 2 tens, seeing as he could have AA and 4.5 outs for the flush, seeing as he could have the K of diamonds. Now the call looks even WORSE.

[$o$o$ucce$$ful]

Now with all of that said, here is a new theory to consider. In one of the many books I read by Sklansky he talks about outs that you are unsure if they help your hand or not. They are counted as 1/2 outs. Therefore, looking at this hand and what eejit could of had, she should of done her odds calcs using 5.5 outs. 1 out for the 2 tens, seeing as he could have AA and 4.5 outs for the flush, seeing as he could have the K of diamonds. Now the call looks even WORSE.

First of all you have to be over 60 to WANT to read Sklansky books and take his advice. He is an old age player who never thought poker would ever turn into what it is as this is the age of AGGRESSION. I am an internet player therefor I am aggressive and negate every single thing in Sklanskys book. If you want to read and know what players now days are thinking read Negreanus books.

[eejit101]

You dont push with the best hand ever? You dont push this and get called by people thinking u have nothing and are stealing it?

If "players like you" call here and hit, then players like you suck. That is proven mathematical fact as proven by this thread.

Im one of the most agressive players i know, and i lay down Tens here after thinking for about 20seconds and working out where i am.


your being results orientated here. She won because she made a bad call and got lucky. Its fine hitting things and getting lucky. Just not when you should know your behind.


If this hand was a marginal decision thread where im contemplating mroe than one decision or move or read, fine. Good luck and play it. But its not. This is semi-advances reading and poker math based complexities. This is a definate fold. Its not even close to debatable, unless you like getting it in all with not the corect odds and having a much worse hand.

And your STILL assuming that my hand doesnt negate the 10d she has! Factor in the fact i can easily have a Kd or Qd... and this is even more likely a fold.

Do

[freeringo]

You will never be in a long debate if you just fold.
You are never wrong folding.

[eejit101]

I dont read poker books, i read one about cash game LHE which helped me learn pot odds. Thats it.

And how do you know i dont push Ax K/Qdmds?? That is a standard push at this stage in a tourney on that flop. I can slow play it yeah, but if i know im getting called by something as bad as TT with a possible flush draw, why should i?

Also, i push this flop with KK/QQ/JJ with a diamond every damn time.

Also - YOUR STILL assuming your draw outs are all live! Even if you do have 9 flush outs, thats still not enough to warrant a call. And say theres a 25% chance i have a higher diamond.


Also Also - Ask around. Im sure the long term members can vouch for my agression and style.

In fact, OPR/SS me.


Full Tilt - eejit101.
OPR Paradise - eejit101 (Tourney cashes $67k)
OPR Stars - eejit101 (full tracking, havent played there in years)
OPR FT - eejit101 (dont have much volume there tho)
OPR Cake - eeejit101 (dunno if it tracks name changes, as i change it every week, that was the longest name i had going)


Lifetime Tourney winnings - $125k+ ($75k+ profit)
Lifetime SnG ROI - 19%.
Lifetime HU ROI - 11%.

[sand]

so let me get this straight


I'M WAY BEHIND IN THE HAND HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM



I CALL ALL IN


HMMMMMMM

[woohoosue]

I pick door number 3.. how many chips do i win?