odds of making your hand...

[quintass]

Here is Lou Krieger's simplified method to quickly figure the "odds of making your hand" at a live table, and I quote:

"An easy method involves multiplying your outs by two, then adding two to that sum. The result is a rough percentage of the chance that you’ll make your hand. Suppose you have a flush draw on the turn. You have nine outs. Nine times 2 equal 18, and 18 plus 2 equals 20. That’s pretty close to the 19.6 percent chance you’d come up with if you worked out the answer mathematically."


Now Im thinking, shouldn't there be consideration factored into this equation for other players holding some of your "out" cards. The above example states you have 9 outs. What if 3 of those "out" cards are other players hole cards? Well now you only have 6 "out" cards instead of 9. So 6 x 2 + 2 is only a 14% chance to make your hand not 18. Doesn't that make a difference in all of this?

quint

[Edshez]

It does Quintass, however, you can never know what cards your opponents are holding, ever. Therefore the only way you can ever work out your odds is by assuming every card that you cannot see, ie not your hand and not the commuinty cards, has the same chance of appearing on the turn or river.

[nodepositneeded]

Exactly what Edshez said:
You never count what a player "might" be holding in any of your equations. Outs are outs - If you haven't seen any cards then they are still your outs. If cards are accidentally exposed in "live" games and any of them were your outs, then you would not count them any in calculations.

However,
If you know the players you are playing against - You can use that to your advantage.

If there are a lot of large bets in a hand and you and another person are simply cold calling - You might be right to assume you are both on a flush draw and if you have a low flush draw it migh be wise to get out of the hand for fear that if your flush hits you are still losing to a higher flush.
Pay attention to how your opponents play and it can help you out in tricky situations!

[eejit101]

what Ed and NDN said basically.

Odds of hitting an "out" on the river - 2.2%. odds of htting your out on the turn or river - 4.4%.

good luck campers