Variance

[eejit101]

Once again, this is all from my head so dont laugh or shout at me if some of it doesnt make sense, as i know i just go off sometimes into the world of the unknown.

Lets start with the dictionary....

In probability theory and statistics, the variance of a random variable, probability distribution, or sample is one measure of statistical dispersion, averaging the squared distance of its possible values from the expected value (mean). Whereas the mean is a way to describe the location of a distribution, the variance is a way to capture its scale or degree of being spread out. The unit of variance is the square of the unit of the original variable. The positive square root of the variance, called the standard deviation, has the same units as the original variable and can be easier to interpret for this reason.

The variance of a real-valued random variable is its second central moment, and it also happens to be its second cumulant. Just as some distributions do not have a mean, some do not have a variance. The mean exists whenever the variance exists, but not vice versa.








Now, that doesnt make sense to me!!!!

So, variance is basically the "luck" factor i think. You can get your chips in as a 90% favourite eveyr single time, but occasionally, youll lose 5 straight times in a row. Or if you eejit101, 1,785 times in a row:p

There is nothing you can do about it, but there are steps you can take to attempt to.

1 - take a break, watch a movie, have a smoke, have a kit-kat!!!!
2 - stop playing fore the day/week. If its that bad, dont chase it, and leave it for some time.
3 - plough through!!! onl advisable if your immune to tilting.
4 - move down in stakes. Itll counter the losses, and when you start to run good again, move it on back up.


Theoretically, you should never lose a tournament unless you run into a stronger hand.


This kind of links back to a thread of Lileds i believe when people were going on about losing in MTTs with the best hand every time, and i said "This is 90% of the time how you should go out, can anyone tell me why"

And you couldnt!!!

Here's why....


Techincally - every time you go all in, you should be ahead. This makes you a good player, obviously not every time you shall be, sometimes you have to push that 88 or KK or AKs, and you do run into 99, AA, or KK e.t.c

Obviously if you won every time you were ahead youd be a millionaire, and i wouldnt be writing this thread. 90% of the time you lose in tourneys you should have won the hand. BUT, your forgetting the previous hand in the tourney where you did win, so the variance comes in to give you a losing run, which is how that huge stack youve accumulated so far dwindles down to busting out.


In cash games, variance is massive. HUGE! I men very good players average profits of 4ptBB/100. Which is 4 x big blinds for every 100 hands played. So you play $3/$6, your up $24 on average every hundred hands. But how many times when you play 100 hands will you be up that amount?? NEVER. You might be up $2k, down $3k, it all adds up. So if youve had a streak of big hands winning, its obvious that luck will change and the variance comes in and you lose a few. This is when people tilt, go on and on and on about bad beats, forgetting obviously all the ebats they have put on others int he men time to get that 4BB/100 average



So, simply, it happens, noone is immune, some people get sick of it (like me right now, im running horrendously).

But if you are a good player, you shall suffice!!!

[bkniefel]

"Theoretically, you should never lose a tournament unless you run into a stronger hand."


That's not only a really good point but also, the key to success. Definately made me think about what determines my variance. Awesome post.

[Pokerkitty6]

Wow...that was alot of reading, interesting....

[allinking17]

wow eej thanks for the time you put into that i have to admit that subject stumped me for awhile

[eejit101]

I just think of things and post them

Vote eej for NDN mod! lol j/k

Vote eej for president though, that would be good for online gaming!

[Lilred36]

Ok, nice post as usual EEJIT.I agree but if ya notice I only make those posts every so often,I do rant.However I am still here, and do still win once in awhile,lol.

[NeverWinHere]

Good stuff ejj!

[twenty47]

interesting....... you know when i start to hit nothing but grief on the tables, i do exactly what is stated, i take a day or 2 off and then try again..... sometimes it helps, and sometimes it doesn't, but if i redeposit at the site, that variable normally speeds up the wins again.... LOL, dunno why but it does.... ha ha

[USCTrojans]

What happens when you have lived on the low ugly side of variance all your poker life? LOL

[eejit101]

Impossible, if thats the case then your just not a good enough player

[USCTrojans]

Impossible, if thats the case then your just not a good enough player

LOL wtf and where does that come from, that fact that variance's low side includes the bad luck i always have dont mean i suck, my luck sucks, i tried to fire her, but she wonrt leave LOL

[GloBug]

wow u must have been really bored to come up with this. it is very good info though. never thought of it that way. thanks for the info.

Glo Bug

[ffcowboy76]

Great post eejit. Most people forget about the variance in poker when looking at their stats. The other point they forget is that each time they run into a situation it's a "new" occurrence. To simplify that statement: if you pick up 3 flush draws in a row, odds say you should hit one correct? NO! Each time you get a flush draw you are a 33% to hit after the flop. The next time, it's back to 33% no matter if you hit the last one or not. Odds do not count occurrences, only the player does that. Even if you missed the last 50 flush draws, your odds are still 33% to hit the next one.

[eejit101]

Damn right, meant to put something like that in the post,g lad u spotted it

[GloBug]

geez i need to read more books. this is all really good info. thanks

[ffcowboy76]

Glo, books are great, but alot of the knowledge shared here is better than what you find in a book. Usually this advise comes with a story from someone who is in the "same boat" as you. We are all learning how to play poker. 99% of us are not pro's, even if we think we are. Read the forums, look at posts, ask questions. Even better, post hand histories and ask for some input on how the hand should be played. Most of us are willing to help.

[GloBug]

hey thanks i will do that. yeah i really dont like reading books so this does seem like a better alternative.

[USCTrojans]

The other point they forget is that each time they run into a situation it's a "new" occurrence.

But this aint only in poker, this is just the way odds and probabilities work,

[eejit101]

YES, PLEASE POST HAND HISTORIES FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!!!!

Play a hand wrong, post it here. I do it, and im alone in it.

People telling what mistakes your making increases your factor of wining by about 100000%.

[USCTrojans]

YES, PLEASE POST HAND HISTORIES FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!!!!

Play a hand wrong, post it here. I do it, and im alone in it.

People telling what mistakes your making increases your factor of wining by about 100000%.

The best way to learn is from own mistakes and others here will help, so really, i'm with eejit here, if you played a bad hand, post it, if you got bad beat, post it too!!!

Maybe we could ask NDN to set up a Hand History commenting subforum

[eejit101]

We have one, its this one

[USCTrojans]

Well I meant like a specific place named Hand History advice/comments

Something just for HH and comments

[freeringo]

Once again, this is all from my head so dont laugh or shout at me if some of it doesnt make sense, as i know i just go off sometimes into the world of the unknown.

Lets start with the dictionary....

In probability theory and statistics, the variance of a random variable, probability distribution, or sample is one measure of statistical dispersion, averaging the squared distance of its possible values from the expected value (mean). Whereas the mean is a way to describe the location of a distribution, the variance is a way to capture its scale or degree of being spread out. The unit of variance is the square of the unit of the original variable. The positive square root of the variance, called the standard deviation, has the same units as the original variable and can be easier to interpret for this reason.

The variance of a real-valued random variable is its second central moment, and it also happens to be its second cumulant. Just as some distributions do not have a mean, some do not have a variance. The mean exists whenever the variance exists, but not vice versa.





Now, that doesnt make sense to me!!!!

So, variance is basically the "luck" factor i think. You can get your chips in as a 90% favourite eveyr single time, but occasionally, youll lose 5 straight times in a row. Or if you eejit101, 1,785 times in a row:p

There is nothing you can do about it, but there are steps you can take to attempt to.

1 - take a break, watch a movie, have a smoke, have a kit-kat!!!!
2 - stop playing fore the day/week. If its that bad, dont chase it, and leave it for some time.
3 - plough through!!! onl advisable if your immune to tilting.
4 - move down in stakes. Itll counter the losses, and when you start to run good again, move it on back up.


Theoretically, you should never lose a tournament unless you run into a stronger hand.


This kind of links back to a thread of Lileds i believe when people were going on about losing in MTTs with the best hand every time, and i said "This is 90% of the time how you should go out, can anyone tell me why"

And you couldnt!!!

Here's why....


Techincally - every time you go all in, you should be ahead. This makes you a good player, obviously not every time you shall be, sometimes you have to push that 88 or KK or AKs, and you do run into 99, AA, or KK e.t.c

Obviously if you won every time you were ahead youd be a millionaire, and i wouldnt be writing this thread. 90% of the time you lose in tourneys you should have won the hand. BUT, your forgetting the previous hand in the tourney where you did win, so the variance comes in to give you a losing run, which is how that huge stack youve accumulated so far dwindles down to busting out.


In cash games, variance is massive. HUGE! I men very good players average profits of 4ptBB/100. Which is 4 x big blinds for every 100 hands played. So you play $3/$6, your up $24 on average every hundred hands. But how many times when you play 100 hands will you be up that amount?? NEVER. You might be up $2k, down $3k, it all adds up. So if youve had a streak of big hands winning, its obvious that luck will change and the variance comes in and you lose a few. This is when people tilt, go on and on and on about bad beats, forgetting obviously all the ebats they have put on others int he men time to get that 4BB/100 average



So, simply, it happens, noone is immune, some people get sick of it (like me right now, im running horrendously).

But if you are a good player, you shall suffice!!!

"Luck is just random perfection/skill."

That doesn't make sense either, yet I have heard it many times.

[0maxpower0]

good stuff eej. I think im gong to read this before i play poker each day, lol. All stuff i should definately be thinking of on a daily basis. Finally a good poker post, seems like its been ages :-p.

I wish was immune to tilting, its like my kryptonite. That part about accumulating chips and then losing them towards the end of tourneys, rly hits home too :-/. I remember i posted awhile ago about playing emotionless poker, i prolly should reread that thread :-p. Been getting real worked up over some bad beats. I think my back broke, when i had KQ move all in in first position with 20X BB to my aces in the BB. Ended up hitting the ace on the river to make his straight... since then... hoo boy.. But i think ill read this a couple more times, hopefully itll imprint itself into my personality. I think if i can overcome going through the inherent emotional swings of poker, Id be a lot more profitable. Oh and happy birthday u limey tea sucking british bastad :-p :-p (family guy anyone??)

-0max