Anyone Follow Horse Racing?

[klinkman]

Does anyone follow horse racing?

If you do, who do you think is the best 3 year old next to Big Brown? If there is any interest I might post my opinions on some of them.

[mbison]

dont follow it much but am intersted

[klinkman]

dont follow it much but am intersted

Okay, then I'll start posting some of my thoughts. These will be in no particular order, and will be updated whenever I get a moment.

Tale Of Ekati:
Top Perfomances: 1st in the Wood Memorial [G1], 4th in the Kentucky Derby[G1], 4th in the Jim Dandy [G1], 1st in the Futurity [G1], 4th in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile [G1]

Notable Misfires: 6th in the Belmont[G1], 7th in the Travers[G1], 6th in the Louisiana Derby

Although seemingly talented as a 2 year old, Tale of Ekati has failed in his last 3 starts, only cashing in the Jim Dandy, and his win in the Wood Memorial was in a slow time against an injured 2nd place horse. He has seemed to be consistent, cashing in several big races, but has not seemed to be able to win. He will likely be pointed to the Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile later this year, but has little chance of winning it in my opinion.

[klinkman]

Macho Again

Top Perfomances: 1st in the Jim Dandy[G2], 1st in the Derby Trial, 2nd in the Preakness Stakes [G1]

Notable Misfires: 5th in the Belmont Stakes[G1], 6th in the Travers Stakes[G1]

Macho Again has shown to be a talented 3 yr old, finishing 2nd in a triple crown race to Big Brown, and beating a strong field in the Jim Dandy. The Travers is a throw out in my opinion as he ran into a wall of horses and clipped his heels when he tried to rally in that race, and the Belmont had no pace which hurt his chances. Mark my words he will be a force to be reckoned with later this year.

[klinkman]

Mambo In Seattle

Top Perfomances: 2nd in the Travers[G1], 1st in the Henry Walton [not graded]

Notable Misfires: None that I can find.

He's lightly raced, but has performed well when he has. His time in the Henry Walton was faster than Macho Again's in the Jim Dandy, on the same day at the same track over the same distance. He lost by half a nose in the Travers, and had to circle the field to get to the lead, costing him precious ground. He could very well be the next big thing, and be up to taking on Big Brown in the BC Classic.

[mbison]

mambo sounds good,please explain what G1 means for me ty

[klinkman]

Pyro

Top Performances: 1st in the Risen Star[G3], 1st in the Louisiana Derby[G2], 2nd in the Jim Dandy[G2], 3rd in the Travers[G1], 2nd in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile[G1], 2nd in the Champagne Stakes[G2], 1st in the Northern Dancer [G3]

Notable Misfires: 8th in the Kentucky Derby[G1], 10th in the Toyota Bluegrass[G1]

Pyro's come from behind style makes him less consistent than horses who are on or close to the pace, and Pyro has 2 notable misfires on his resume. Furthermore, if he were as talented as some people seem to think he is, there is no reason why he couldn't have won the Jim Dandy or the Travers. His run at the field always seems to be too little to late. Furthermore he really failed on his one race on polytrack, which the Breeder's Cup dirt races will be on later this year.

[klinkman]

mambo sounds good,please explain what G1 means for me ty

When I say G1, I mean Grade 1. Stakes races are graded on the quality of horses that have run in them or won them in the past. A grade 1 race is generally the cream of the crop of horses that run in them. A grade 2 tends to have a slightly lower class of horses, but some top horses have run in them. A grade 3 is the lowest grade of a graded stakes race, but still has had enough talented horses in the past to set it apart from an average everyday race at a racetrack.

[klinkman]

Colonel John

Top Perfomances: 1st in the Travers[G1], 1st in the Santa Anita Derby[G1], 1st in the Sham Stakes [G3], 2nd in the CashCall Futurity[G2]

Notable Misfires: 6th in the Kentucky Derby[G1], 3rd in the Swaps Stakes(out of 4)[G2]

Colonel John is something of an enigma to me. As soon as I had written him off as a Polytrack only horse he goes and wins the Travers. His win in the Travers proves that he is the real deal. And with the Breeder's Cup being run on polytrack this year he is in great shape to run in the classic or the dirt mile, whichever he ends up being pointed at. However I think that other horses may be better on dirt, most notably Mambo in Seattle and Macho Again. But there is no doubt that he is talented and will be huge at the end of the season.

[klinkman]

Da' Tara

Top Performances: 1st in the Belmont Stakes[G1], 2nd in the Barbaro Stakes [Not Graded]

Notable Misfires: 7th in the Jim Dandy[G2], 5th in the Travers[G1], 5th in the Derby Trial[Not Graded], 9th in the Florida Derby[G1]

Da' Tara seems to need a lot of things to go his way in order to win a race. He got to jog for the first mile in the Belmont, which allowed him to stay in front of the come from behind horses. When pressed on the pace, as he was in the Jim Dandy and the Travers, he fades at the end. He does have one thing going for him-he beat Big Brown in the Belmont.

[klinkman]

Visionaire

Top Performances: 1st in the King's Bishop Stakes[G1], 3rd in the Northern Dancer Stakes[G3], 1st in the Gotham Stakes[G3], 3rd in the Risen Star[G3]

Notable Misfires: 5th in the Toyota Bluegrass[G1], 12th in the Kentucky Derby[G1]

Visionaire might have finally found a niche in 1 turn sprint races, beating a strong field in the King's Bishop, including Kodiak Kowboy, J be K and Desert Key, who going in were considered to be the best sprinters in the 3 yr old ranks. His run from last to first was nothing short of impressive, and I expect him to stick to sprint races with good results, hopefully ending in a run at the Breeder's Cup Sprint.

[klinkman]

Harlem Rocker

Top Performances: 1st in the Prince of Whales[G1], 1st in the Withers[G3]

Notable Misfires: 4th in the Travers[G1], 4th in the Queen's Plate Trial[G3, I believe]

Harlem Rocker did not impress me much in the Withers. J be K is a sprinter and under no circumstances should run longer than 7 furlongs, and the Withers was a mile. He stopped at the eighth pole leaving Harlem Rocker to come in and take the race easily. His win in the Prince of Whales is far more impressive. The Prince of Whales is a Canadian Triple Crown race, and had a decently talented field. However, the Travers is a complete disappointment. He had every chance to win it a the top of the stretch but didn't have enough speed to win. I'm not sure what to expect next from Harlem Rocker, as he ran poorly over his one race on polytrack (the Queen's Plate Trial), and the Breeder's Cup will be run over it this year.

[klinkman]

Behindatthebar

Top Performances: 1st in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes[G2]

Notable Misfires: 5th in the El Camino Real Derby[G3]

Behindatthebar was entered in the Preakness stakes but was scratched after it was discovered that he had a bruised foot. He did fire a stinker in his only start on standard dirt, and his pedigree suggests a preference for turf rather than dirt, so I don't expect him to do well outside of the Breeders Cup and the preps that are on polytrack, but his win in the Coolmore Lexington was pretty impressive and he figures to factor in the Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile if he is healthy enough to run.

[Lilred36]

Klink you really like horse racing huh? do you have an online sportsbook?

[klinkman]

Recapturetheglory

Top Performances: 1st in the Illinois Derby[G2], 5th in the Kentucky Derby[G1]

Notable Misfires: 4th in the Northern Dancer, 9th in the West Virginia Derby[G3]

He has excuses for both of his misfires, he was blocked in when he went to run in the Northern Dancer, and burst through the starting gate early in the West Virginia Derby, costing him energy and he tired and faded at the end of race.

I'm not totally sure where I would go with him if I were his owner or trainer. He should not run more than 9 furlongs though, and might be suited for something like the Breeder's Cup Sprint or Dirt Mile. Or he could step down in class and run some lower graded stakes, though I'm not sure where.

[klinkman]

Klink you really like horse racing huh? do you have an online sportsbook?

Hehe yes I do like it. But as of right now I do not have a sportsbook. TVG has a decent promotion going on right now, so I might deposit there at some point. If anyone knows any good no deposit or match bonuses post them here for me. I used to have a bodog account but I haven't used that for a while, and I think I could get a better bonus somewhere else.

Edit: Never mind, TVG requires me to be 21, which I am not yet....It's only 18 to gamble in Oklahoma even!

[nodepositneeded]

It's 18 here too (MN).

[klinkman]

Z Fortune

Top Performances: 3rd in the Ohio Derby[G2], 2nd in the Arkansas Derby[G2], 2nd in the Risen Star Stakes[G3], 1st in the LeComte Stakes[not graded]

Notable Misfires: 8th in the West Virginia Derby [G3], 7th in the Iowa Derby[not graded], 10th in the Kentucky Derby[G1], 5th in the Rebel Stakes[G2]

A master of inconstancy, Z Fortune has never won a graded stakes, and has failed to fire in several. It's hard what to expect him to do next, as 2 of his biggest failures have been races where he was supposed to be up against weaker competition. I would probably put him back in an Allowance race of some sort to see how he performs before paying all the entry fees for him to not fire in another stakes race. But I know Zayat stables won't do that. I just have no idea what he will do.

[klinkman]

Adriano

Top Performances: 1st in the Lane's End Stakes[G2]

Notable Misfires: 19th in the Kentucky Derby, 9th in the Fountain of Youth[G2]

He's running in the Kent Stakes[G3] Saturday, where he is the morning line favorite, so we'll see how he does against a weak seeming field. If he fails to fire here it should be time for him to take a big step down in class. But he does seem to like polytrack ok, so a good performance might put him into consideration for the Breeder's Cup races later in the summer.

[klinkman]

Kodiak Kowboy

Top Performances: 1st in the Amsterdam Stakes[G2], 2nd in the Derby Trial[not graded], 3rd in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile[G1], 1st in the Saratoga Special[G2], 1st in the Bashford Manner[G3]

Notable Misfires: 5th in the King's Bishop Stakes[G1]

Kodiak Kowboy ran the race of his life to win the Amsterdam by a nose over Desert Key. It took a lot out of him to pull that off, and it showed when he failed to fire in the King's Bishop. Where he'll go next is interesting, but I hope that the final goal is the Breeder's Cup Sprint, as I think he is fit and talented enough for it. He's certainly a top quality sprinter but has not been tried over a mile, and it seems unlikely that he's capable of it.

[klinkman]

Smooth Air

Top Performances: 1st in the Ohio Derby[G2], 2nd in the Florida Derby[G1], 1st in the Hutcheson Stakes[G2], 3rd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes[not graded]

Notable Misfires: 11th in the Kentucky Derby

Smooth Air has been quite an impressive performer, being the only one in the same zip code as Big Brown in the Florida Derby, and beating a decent field that included Z Fortune in the Ohio Derby. Everything that could go wrong did for Smooth Air in the derby, getting a fever the week before, then getting bumped at every possible point in the race an not getting any room to run. I'm not sure if he's Breeder's Cup material, but his owners have to be happy with all the money he's made in his stakes races. He runs this weekend in the Pennsylvania Derby, where he will likely be a huge favorite, and if he dominates there he just might be ready for the big time.

[klinkman]

Ready's Echo

Top Finishes: 3rd in the Belmont Stakes[G1], 3rd in the Peter Pan Stakes[G2]

Notable Misfires: None

Ready's Echo seems to come from way to far off the pace to actually be able to win most races, but it sure is fun to watch. I'd like to see him continue to run in some of the bigger stakes races as he makes the finishes really exciting. And the last 15 seconds of this video is hillarous. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z85lS0T6654

[nodepositneeded]

That was crazy!

[Lilred36]

Yep he loves racing.

[klinkman]

Free Equibase Past Performances here: http://www.equibase.com/rotw/fullpp.pdf

1. Stones River (7 starts, 4 wins, 0 2nds, 0 3rds)
He's won 4 straight but is taking a big step up in class here. If the track gets wet I really like him, otherwise he might be outclassed here.

2. Ready Set (11 starts, 4 wins, 2 2nds, 2 3rds)
His first stakes win came in the West Virginia Derby, where the field wasn't very strong and things set up for him. I can see him making an impact here but I can't see picking him over several of the other horses here.

3. Numanny (7 starts, 2 wins, 0 2nds, 1 3rd)
He's well bred for sure, but not very talented. An easy throw out for me to make.

4. Tiz Now Tiz Then (10 starts, 3 wins, 2 2nds 1 3rd)
It took him 7 maiden races to finally figure things out, but 3 straight wins then an impressive 3rd place in the Jim Dandy have proven that he does have the class to run with these horses. A strong 2nd choice for me

5. Only for Now (6 starts, 3 wins, 2 2nds, 1 3rd)
He has won 3 straight, but going from Allowance Optional Claiming to a Grade 2 million dollar race is a big step. I can't imagine him running well enough to hit the board here, but I've been wrong before.

6. Smooth Air (9 starts, 4 wins, 2 2nds, 2 3rds)
The morning line favorite and the best horse in the field. Outside of his Kentucky Derby failure, he's run impressively in all of his starts. My pick to win.

7. Two Step Salsa (6 starts, 4 wins, 2 2nds)
This will be the biggest race he's run in, but his 2nd in the Swaps Stakes was impressive, re-rallying to beat Colonel John. However, I think Smooth Air and Tiz Now Tiz Then might be faster, but he should be on your tickets.

8. Anak Nakal (9 starts, 2 wins, 1 2nd, 1 3rd)
The dead heat for 3rd in the Belmont notwithstanding, Anak Nakal has refused to run in all of his starts this year. I can't imagine him outrunning the crowd here, so it's an easy leave off of my recommendations.

9. Atoned (13 starts, 2 wins, 7 2nds)
He has failed to fire in several of his starts, and his best race so far wouldn't even be enough for him to hit the board against this field. Another easy toss for me.

10. Power Game (2 starts, 2 wins)
His speed figures haven't been terribly high, but he is undefeated. This might end up biting me in the butt, but I have to recommend not betting on this horse.

11. You and I Forever(6 starts, 2 wins, 1 2nd, 1 3rd)
He ran within a neck to Mambo in Seattle in the Henry Walton, but his other starts have been lackluster. I just can't see him competing against this field, but I could be mistaken again.

12- Field, Wishful Tomcat(7 starts, 2 wins, 3 2nds, 1 3rd) Alaazo(5 starts, 2 wins) Acai(7 starts, 2 wins, 1 2nd, 2 3rds)

The weakest horses are grouped together since the boards can only handle 12 betting interests. None of them have a chance, so ignore them

1st Pick-Smooth Air
2nd Pick- Tiz Now Tiz Then

Recommended bet- Exacta Box, 6 over 4, 7, 2, 1