odds of AAA flop?

[ScareCrowAKA]

What are the odds of a Flop hitting 3 matching cards, Say... AAA. I have been playing on intertops the last 2 days, the low buy-in sit and goes, Ive been off and bored and not really wanting to risk alot of $ at the moment... i have seen maybe 350 hands at the most in the last 2 days and today saw the third AAA flop in 2 days... are not the odds of this happening pretty astronomical?

[eejit101]

424-1

once every 425 hands then

[nessdark2]

very rarely see any like that, did have one recently of 10 10 10...

[eejit101]

Id say over 1million hands you would see it once in every 425 hands

[ScareCrowAKA]

I know for sure I seen 2 AAA and one other that was not Aces... and I only play like 2 hrs at the most... im guessing thats around 350 hands... I know they say you see it more often cuz its more hands a hour, and ya, Ive seen it live, played in one 5 table tournament live last month where we seen quads 4 times... and played in another where i was dealt pocket aces 7 times in a 8 table tourney... but I still dont trust online poker entirely, I cant say they "rigg" the outcomes but it just seems that the situations you are put in, if you are not very very disciplined w reads and position, you lose... its not like that when I play live... live I can actually make a move once in a while... online I dont even try, cuz they have me beat every single time... cake seems the worst to me, the best luck I seem to have is on bodog, FullTilt is streaky as hell up and down... and ya, I re-downloaded fulltilt, cuz im a tool, lol... I pretty much have limited myself to fulltilt tourneys, cake .25/.50 .50/1 ring games, and a mix of both on Bodog

[ScareCrowAKA]

Maybe its just moving from learning live transitioning to online, its so much different, online seems to be position position position, live not as much... maybe I just read people and an give off false signs better live than I do online and thats why live seems easier for me

[klinkman]

In general, A live 1/2$ game will be MUCH softer than a .1/.25 game online. That is the reason why you can be successful playing OOP more live than online, the online players understand so much better how to punish you for playing OOP more.

[eejit101]

Live games IMO are much softer.

[ScareCrowAKA]

lol, the 1/2 games here... those guys are some loose calling mother f'ers, super aggressive... its pretty easy to just buy in for 200$, win 50$ and leave, if you play tight, pick your spots, dont get unlucky... alot of them use the whole call big raises with small/medium suited connectors stuff, just hoping your on 2 big cards and dont hit or catch a draw and semi-bluff at it... the .25/.50 online stuff I can do pretty well at if I dont play for to long, usually just try to win >50% and cash out... same live, buy in for 200$, win 75$ and get out... I figure 75$ is what alot of people make in a 8hr day after taxes, so good enough 4 me

[ScareCrowAKA]

was the 424-1 number just for a specific card like AAA or for any matching cards 2 threw A ... cuz i just seen another 333 flop thats 3 days in a row... 4 total... this one was in a dumbass gold chip SnG

[TerpZone]

lol, the 1/2 games here... those guys are some loose calling mother f'ers, super aggressive... its pretty easy to just buy in for 200$, win 50$ and leave, if you play tight, pick your spots, dont get unlucky... alot of them use the whole call big raises with small/medium suited connectors stuff, just hoping your on 2 big cards and dont hit or catch a draw and semi-bluff at it... the .25/.50 online stuff I can do pretty well at if I dont play for to long, usually just try to win >50% and cash out... same live, buy in for 200$, win 75$ and get out... I figure 75$ is what alot of people make in a 8hr day after taxes, so good enough 4 me

Leave after making $50? I bought in for $200 last night at the casino and walked out with $744 after 5 hours. I ****ed myself out of a good $600 more too when flop came 822 and the super super super aggro guy with $5-600 in front of him led out for $25 and I made the HORRIBLE decision to raise to $75 with $700 in front of me. He I smooth called, he would have have bet the turn for $115-120 like EVERY SINGLE TIME I smooth called him on the flop. Could have been a $1000 night at 1/2! :(


But yeah, the odds of seeing AAA 3x in 2 days are the same as seeing any other flop 3x in 2 days. I saw two trip flops yesterday at the tables playing live.

[ScareCrowAKA]

lol ya but how many times have you bought in for 200$ went up 500$ and left with nothing?

[ScareCrowAKA]

really, if you average >8 ROI over the course of a year... you are beating current interest rates ... and even a fair year in the stock market

[TerpZone]

lol ya but how many times have you bought in for 200$ went up 500$ and left with nothing?

Almost never. I'll break even often, and sometimes I'll even lose $100 or so, but way more often I win rather than lose. live 200NL is so goddamn easy.

[ScareCrowAKA]

and for me... my job is easy as hell, I sit at a desk and watch computer screens for 8 hours a day... I make 15$ a hour and can pretty much pick up overtime any time I want which is 22.50$ a hour, lets say I take max. dependents on my paychecks and pay all taxes at the end of the year in-order to get max. value out of any investments... I work 5 hours a wk overtime and invest that amount in a 8% corporate bond compounding throughout the year, adding 45$ each month... this comes out to be 609$ in interest and 5850$ in principle. 6459$ total... 5040$ after taxes (22%)

conversely, If I played one 5hr poker session a wk instead of working the overtime... I have to average above 19$ a hour, and finish the yr. above the amount of 5040$ for me to really be "up anything" at all.

Im not losing value in poker being easier than my job, Bcuz its not, physically or mentally, and im comparing it to overtime not regular time so no value is lost in the option of health insurance, 401k, etc... I guess some value might be added to the overtime, accruing a extra 5 hrs worth of paid time off a wk, at a rate of a extra 20hrs a mo. throughout the yr its probably a extra 10hrs paid time off or so a yr... so that's another 117$ after taxes I would have to make up w poker

[ScareCrowAKA]

So if i buy in for 200$ each session (5hrs)... I need to win 97.50$ on average just to keep track w what i could be making working and investing

[ScareCrowAKA]

... and ya not adding 45$ a month adding 450$ month... missed the decimal point... and that changes the 5040 amount, the final number is only alittle off though, instead of 97.50 per 5 hr session is should be closer to 93.50$

[TerpZone]

and for me... my job is easy as hell, I sit at a desk and watch computer screens for 8 hours a day... I make 15$ a hour and can pretty much pick up overtime any time I want which is 22.50$ a hour, lets say I take max. dependents on my paychecks and pay all taxes at the end of the year in-order to get max. value out of any investments... I work 5 hours a wk overtime and invest that amount in a 8% corporate bond compounding throughout the year, adding 45$ each month... this comes out to be 609$ in interest and 5850$ in principle. 6459$ total... 5040$ after taxes (22%)

conversely, If I played one 5hr poker session a wk instead of working the overtime... I have to average above 19$ a hour, and finish the yr. above the amount of 5040$ for me to really be "up anything" at all.

Im not losing value in poker being easier than my job, Bcuz its not, physically or mentally, and im comparing it to overtime not regular time so no value is lost in the option of health insurance, 401k, etc... I guess some value might be added to the overtime, accruing a extra 5 hrs worth of paid time off a wk, at a rate of a extra 20hrs a mo. throughout the yr its probably a extra 10hrs paid time off or so a yr... so that's another 117$ after taxes I would have to make up w poker

What the hell are you going on about? I make $25+/hr at work for sitting on reddit all day, and $38/hr overtime whenever I want and $52 if I come in a weekday or holiday.

Guess what? Sometimes, I'd rather hang out at a poker table all day than go to work. It's social, and the booze is free. I enjoy playing live poker, I'm not advocating it replace a job.

[ScareCrowAKA]

lol... then thats the only value gained... recreational fun... I was just showing how I figure out the win 50$ then leave thing... cuz if I do it under 2.5 hours, Im actually making money, not losing

[TerpZone]

lol... then thats the only value gained... recreational fun... I was just showing how I figure out the win 50$ then leave thing... cuz if I do it under 2.5 hours, Im actually making money, not losing

Look, I understand what opportunity cost is. You don't have to explain it (incorrectly, at that) to me. I'm just saying, my utility is not derived entirely from social interaction nor monetary gain. There's obviously a correlation between the two. My point is that it is stupid to go and play and leave after making $50, it's such a miniscule and arbitrary amount in comparison to both the limits being played, and the opportunity cost of being at work and it doesn't factor in the added utility of non monetary gain.

If you go to the casino for the sole purpose of winning $50 and then go home, I feel sorry for you and I would like to donate a can of beans to you so you can have a meal next week.

[ScareCrowAKA]

I didnt mean I would just get to 50$ and quit, I just said its easy to do that at the games around here... I meant that once I get to 50$ I wont go under it, I'll leave, because I then begin to lose $... Poker is fun yes, but I dont want to lose $ doing it, pretty much the entire point of gambling is to win $, not lose... I dont really consider the social aspect because really work is just about as social for me as playing poker at the casino w a bunch of dudes

[eejit101]

I earn $40 an hour ish. Id quit right now and earn $30 an hour playing live poker in a heartbeat. Its not just the fact you have the money, its the fact that you havent "earnt" the money.

[ScareCrowAKA]

...**** I would for 25$ a hour... if i could always average that every month and never be down

[ScareCrowAKA]

... and I dont get how you say 50$ profit in 2 hrs off a 200$ investment is minuscule... 25% ROI... Stocks as a investment over the last 60yrs on average are about a 12% ROI yearly... a minimum wage job in America pays 60$ a day (before taxes) for 8hrs of work (hard work)

[TerpZone]

... and I dont get how you say 50$ profit in 2 hrs off a 200$ investment is minuscule... 25% ROI... Stocks as a investment over the last 60yrs on average are about a 12% ROI yearly... a minimum wage job in America pays 60$ a day (before taxes) for 8hrs of work (hard work)

Because if I'm going to go out of my way to go all the way to a casino to sit for only $50 or 2 hours, I'd rather just play online. When I play live, I grind that **** for 7-10 hour sessions.