Handicapping the Jim Dandy
Saratoga's local prep for the Traver's Stakes is tomorrow. Once again it sits in the shadow of the Haskell Invitational, where derby winner Super Saver, Preakness winner Looking at Lucky, Preakness runner-up First Dude and Derby runner-up Ice Box lead the way there. But in it's shadow sits a good betting race, and one that perhaps might give a contender to the big boys.
Starting from the rail, we have Steinbeck, who shipped over to the US from Ireland. He was 2nd in a group 3 race his last start, before that he failed to menace in 3 group 1 races. He's going from Turf to Dirt, and theoretically moving back up in class slightly. He's the type of horse that I think you have to leave off and hope he doesn't beat you. Verdict: Stand Against
Afleet Express is the Number 2 horse. He's coming off of a Grade 3 win and an Allowance win. He does have to step it up just a bit to be able to beat these, but I think he's capable. He is a stalker, which may or may not hurt him, as there does figure to be a decent pace up front. I do think he is capable here, and perhaps could score the upset. Verdict: Win Contender
Stormy's Majesty drew the 3 post. A New York bred who has never faced open company, all 3 of his wins were in NY-restricted Maiden and Allowance races. Stepping up to a Grade 2 against former triple crown runners and hopefuls is just too much. If you look at the speed figures, he's about 10 points shy of the top runners, and frankly I think he'll stay that way. Verdict: Toss.
Number 4 horse is Aikenite. He steps up off of a win in a allowance race. I'm not totally sure what to make of his career, his attempts at running against top company have ended poorly, His attempts against grade 3 type company have been OK but not great, and He's crushed allowance company. It kinda seems like he'd be in the middle here. Verdict: Toss
The 5 horse is A Little Warm. I'm sure he is, but really that's his name. He hasn't been worse than 2nd in his last 6 starts, and ran a huge speed figure in an Optional Claimer a month ago. He's finished 2nd twice in grade 2 company, and will need to improve slightly on those performances to get there, but I think he can. Verdict: Win Contender
Miner's Reserve is the number 6. He ran a big one as well, finishing right behind A Little Warm in the Optional Claimer a month ago. However, unlike A Little Warm, his forays into stakes races have gone poorly, finishing 10th in the Florida Derby and 7th in the Derby Trial. It really doesn't seem like he has the class to run well in this type of race, he wants an easy lead and won't get it here. Verdict: Toss
Lucky number 7 is Winslow Homer. He ran 3rd in the Iowa Derby and won the Holy Bull his race before that. Looking at the speed figures, he just seems a cut below the others. He hasn't met these type of runners before, and I suspect they will crush him. Verdict: Toss
Friend or Foe has the 8 post. He's run 3 races in his life and won them all. His last race was a NY-restricted race, where he ran the highest speed figure out of anyone in this field. But I can't see him replicating that against this field. It really seems like he will bounce against this type of field. He could repeat his last performance and be a threat, but I'm standing against it. Verdict: Toss.
Fly Down is the final horse in the field. He ran a late closing second in the Belmont and won the Dwyer before that. He has an impressive ability to close, and I think this race sets up for him. There is a lot of pace up front for him to run at, and he is the class of the field. Verdict: Main Win Contender
How I plan to play the race: .10 Supers, Fly Down, A Little Warm and Afleet Express (2,9,5) with (2,9,5) (2,9,5,1), (2,9,5,1,4). Total of 24 combinations, 2.40 wager.
