$25NL hand

Here is a hand from a recent session I played on FTP. I'm posting this to get people thinking of what his range might be and what you would do on the river based on that range. I will post the outcome after a few days of discussion. I plan on posting more hands like this to discuss odds and ranging players.

Full Tilt Poker Game #16836429842: Table Older - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:00:26 ET - 2009/12/15
Seat 1: xiexz ($25)
Seat 2: ffcowboy76 ($27.45)
Seat 3: GraceCR ($5.10)
Seat 4: Preacherman08 ($30.38 )
Seat 5: cippycip ($25.09)
Seat 6: Heritage0 ($13.75)
Seat 7: mjn88 ($8.38 )
Seat 8: ShooterZP ($23.40)
Seat 9: RadiantAngel ($33.62)
GraceCR posts the small blind of $0.10
Preacherman08 posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ffcowboy76 [9d 9h]
cippycip has 15 seconds left to act
cippycip calls $0.25
Heritage0 folds
mjn88 folds
ShooterZP folds
RadiantAngel folds
xiexz folds
ffcowboy76 raises to $0.75
GraceCR folds
Preacherman08 folds
cippycip calls $0.50
*** FLOP *** [5s 6d 8d] Pot : $1.85 - minus rake
cippycip checks
ffcowboy76 bets $1.25
cippycip calls $1.25
*** TURN *** [5s 6d 8d] [3d] Pot : $4.35 - minus rake
cippycip checks
ffcowboy76 bets $3.50
cippycip calls $3.50
*** RIVER *** [5s 6d 8d 3d] [4c] Pot : $11.35 - minus rake
cippycip has 15 seconds left to act
cippycip bets $3.75

What do you do? What do you think he has?

Two or a seven but more likely a couple of diamonds in his pocket

Ok, Marakesh, do you call the flop bet with either a 7 or two diamonds? After you answer that one, does the player have the odds to call chasing a flush or a straight, given we do not know my cards?

he limped and only .50 to call to see a flop. so yes its possible for him to have 2 diamonds here. at this level people love to see the flop.

also a limp call UTG also could be slow playing a big pair.

then he has A 7

Ok. This isn't going where I hoped it would. I was looking for someone to assign a range based on the current action and then look at the betting each round and see if the opponent had odds to make calls with the suspected hand and if he didn't, is his river bet a value bet or a bluff.

Let say we assign him to 7x (Seven and any other card), 2x (Two and any other card), or 2 diamonds. For sake of discussion, we can include big pocket pair into the assignment as well.

Looking at the 7x hands. He could have A7, K7....87, 76, 75, etc. Now, looking at the mid ranged 7x hands he could of flopped a pair plus an open ended straight draw. The straight draw gives him 8 outs to make his straight (4 x 4 and 4 x 9) Now, we know there are only 2 x 9 available (the other 2 are in our hand). He figures on 8 outs and he has roughly a 17% chance of hitting one of those cards on the turn. Now this is where it gets tricky. He could have made a pair and that adds more value to his hand against AK, AQ, AJ, AT, but detracts value if I have a pocket pair. We know I have a pocket pair, so I will add in the 5 outs that improve him to 2 pair. Now he is roughly at 28% to hit one of his 13 outs that improve him. The bet on the turn was $1.25 into a $1.85 pot. He had to call $1.25 to win a pot of $3.10 which gives him pot odds of 40%. Based on the math, if he has mid pair and a straight draw, the call wasn't a smart play. He was only getting 28% chance to hit, but committed 40% of the pot with the call.

Looking at the 2x hands is the same as the 7x hands only the draws are longer than the 7x so I won't break them down.

Any two diamonds. Supposing he had any two diamonds makes this hand a bit different. He has 4 to the flush on the flop and has 9 outs to improve to a flush. We also need to consider if he has any overs and what that might do. With the 9 outs to improve to the flush he is still calling 40% of the pot, but only getting about 20% to hit on the turn. Lets add in the fact he might have overs to the board and to our hand. This gives him an additional 6 outs making his chance of hitting one of his outs roughly 30%. Now, you are screaming "Cowboy, if he hits his flush he's can possible take all of your chips. Doesn't that count for something?" I would say yes it does, but it makes the math harder still. For sake of discussion you can increase the pot by about 1/2 the total pot for the turn bet. This would improve his pot odds drastically. He is now calling $1.25 into a pot of $6.50 (3.10 + 1.25 + 2.15). This means his pot odds are roughly 20%. This means that if he is calling with 4 to the flush and overs he has to odds to call.

Now, we have looked at the flop and considered his hands. On the turn I lead out again and he only calls. Either he is a really skilled player playing lower than his usual limit or he doesn't have the flush. On the river he leads out for about 30% of the pot. This is to be seen as either a value bet or a bluff. Both are very possible. Based on the action from the previous streets I considered all the options and put him on a possible straight, but I felt it was a small enough bet in consideration to the pot size to make the call and see what he had.

Ends up he made a bad call on the flop with 8/7 off suit.

Ahh, but you have to include the implied odds.

e.g if you have a set or made hand, your calling any bet on the turn that hit him, which moves his % if he has the 7x to 58% and if he has the flush to 76%, therefore making this +EV.

IMO the villain here has some kind of pair and draw hand, id imagine 75 or 78, or if he had the flush draw then A5d, but im leaning more towards the pair and straight.

You are very correct. In my rush to write my response I forgot to include the implied odds on the 7x hands because you are correct, if I hit my set I might overlook the straight. Thank you eejit for pointing that out. The answer is he had 7/8 off.

Its still a definate raise on the flop rather than a call, the odds work better for a semi bluff for him there

Somethings I didn't consider in the explanation above that he wouldn't consider, but as quality players we need to consider. On the flop I had the over pair plus the gut shot. I made a standard c-bet to eliminate the possible draws that were out there. After the call I was considering a possible open ended draw for him. When looking at his odds, we know that if he has a 7, we have 3 outs to hit our straight that counterfeit his hand. If the turn is a 7, he hits 2 pair and we pickup the straight. All of that was going through my head as I selected bet sizes. The turn didn't improve his hand at all, based on where I assigned him during the hand. I put him on the 7x hands and strongly considered any of the hands that gave him a pair plus the straight draw. While he picked up a flush draw, I had a potential better one, again counterfeiting his hand. While I was 99% sure on the river I was beat, his bet size was perfect for a value bet, but I was willing to pay to see how he played the hand. There were many notes made after the hand about how he played it.