Why to Fold Like Cheap Furniture
Texas Hold’em Strategy is about people who are dealt pocket overcards, and why drawing hands should fold to them. anyone watching the World Series of Poker would have to conclude that a lot of these competitors have worked wishful thinking into their overall poker strategy. While it is mandatory that you take more chances as the blinds go up, bad poker strategy is still bad poker strategy; nobody can justify walking into a buzz saw with the words, “well the blinds were high, I had to do something.”
It is accepted Texas Hold’em Strategy that somebody holding a pair of Aces, Kings, or Queens in their hands will bet aggressively in order to eliminate the competition. This is because they fear the drawing hands trumping their big cards; and rightfully so. If they bet twenty or thirty times the big blind before the flop, and you are working on a drawing hand, seeing the flop will be a very expensive prospect. So you have to decide how much you are willing to pay for the opportunity of thumping your opponent with an overcard trumping straight or flush.
Straights and flushes are the two most likely drawing hands to connect with when you are holding either suited or unsuited connectors. If you are holding something like an unsuited J-10, the odds that you will get a pair of cards that connect to it on the flop; creating an open ended straight draw with 8 outs is 10.5% (the odds of hitting your straight on the flop are 1.31%). If you are lucky enough to get a couple of helpful cards, and are 8 outs away from victory, they chances that you make your hand by end are 31.5%. While the 31.5% is attractive, few are going to bet the farm on the bad odds that are facing you before the flop. There is an 89.5% chance that you will fail to get the vital two cards you need to keep your hand alive and viable.
If you are holding a couple of suited cards, such as a 2h-Qh, the odds that the flop will give you a flush are .84%. Your odds are a little better of getting two cards with matching suits on the flop; about 11%. With the turn and river still looming, and your hand four cards into a flush, you chances of hitting your hand by the end are 35%.
This is why players with pocket Aces or Kings bet big before the flop. If somebody gets really lucky when the first three cards hit the board, the odds of them getting the last card they need by the river are not that bad. So the decision the drawing hand must make is if they are willing to invest a large sum of money on the really horrible pre-flop odds in the hopes that will survive long enough for better, but far from certain, odds later on in the hand. Usually the smarter play is just to fold and let the big cards have the pot.
happy reading.
