Basic Poker Math

Most newer players make most of the expensive mistakes in poker after the flop. Once the flop hits you have your first “poker” hand. How you act post flop will determine if you will be a profitable player or a unprofitable player. The great part about poker is that there are a certain number of cards left in the deck after the flop that you haven’t seen. xxx In the chart the first percentage column is based on the shortcut method, which I will talk about in a second. The second percentage column is based of the actual math. If you notice at the higher out numbers the shortcut method is off by a fairly large margin. It would be best if you didn’t feel comfortable with outs to reproduce the chart I’ve provided to use while you play.

The shortcut method used in the chart is designed to simplify and quicken the process of determine your percentage to hit post flop. To calculate your percentage to hit on the turn and river take your total number of outs and multiply by 4. For just the river take the number of outs and multiply by 2. Here is an example:

You hold Kh Qh and the Flop is Jh Th 5d.

How many outs do you think you have? Do you have 9 outs, 12 outs, or 15 outs? The correct answer is 15 outs. How did I get this you ask. It’s a matter of counting the cards that improve your hand to make a better hand. In this case you have an open ended straight flush draw, straight draw, and flush draw. In every deck of cards there are 13 cards per suit and you see 4 of them. This leaves 9 Hearts left in the deck to give you the flush. On the open ended straight draw you have 8 cards that will give you the straight (4 A’s and 4 9’s). Here is where you can run into trouble. Remember when you counted the flush out you included the A of hearts and 9 of hearts in the 9 remaining hearts. That means for the straight you only have 6 other cards that improve your hand. If you add 9 for the flush and 6 for the straight you get a total of 15 outs. Now to put into context of a game. You are playing $1/$2 NL and there is $15 in the pot. The first player to act bets out for $3 and it folds to you. What is your action, do you fold or call? The correct answer is to call. You are getting “pot odds” to make the call and draw for your improved hand. You are putting $3 into a pot of $18 which is 1/6th of the total pot or 17%. You are 54.1% (60% via shortcut method) to hit your hand on the turn or river. Now, you missed your draw on the turn. There is $21 in the pot now and the aggressor bets $8 into you. What now? Lets look at the odds. You are putting $8 into a pot that now has $29 in it. You are getting pot odds of 27.5%(8/29). You have a 32.5% chance of hitting your hand. You still have a better chance of hitting than what you are putting into the pot so call. Now if you miss on the river and he bets into you again, it would be in your best interest to consider folding, unless you are sure you can beat him. Please don’t call just because you have put money into the pot, cut your loses and play another hand.

What we went through above is another part of the big odds equation, called pot odds. When you get your percentage of hitting your hand, you need to compare that to what percentage of the pot your call is. If you play limit the math is a lot easier than for the no limit player. If you are unsure, take the amount bet into you divided by the total dollar amount in the pot. If you have to call $2 into a $4 pot you should be 50% to hit your hand.

There is one more level of odds and that is implied odds, but I will save that for another day. It’s a bit more complex and requires a good understanding of the general odds described above.

Now, you have learned about what the odds are and how the can help justify a call. Use this same information when you flop a big hand with a bad board. Here is an example:

You hold 9h 9s and the flop is 5c 9c Jd.

This is a REALLY bad board of a set of 9’s. There are a lot of draws with that board that can hurt your hand. QT, T8, or any two clubs are all threats. When you decide how much to bet when the action comes to you, remember that people drawing to a flush are looking for pot odds of 35% or better. If you only make their call 15% of the pot, you are asking to get drawn out on. If there is $3 in the pot, you want to bet at least $2 if not more. With a $2 bet the pot odds are 40% to the next player to act. Remember it is always better to pick up a small pot than to lose a big one, especially if you give your opponents the opportunity to draw out on you.

Hope this information is helpful and you have a profitable time at the tables.