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AdQd
15 people left, your in late position with 10,000 in chips, woohoo! you picked up AQ suited...so you raise an unopened pot upto 4.5 times the blind...lets say blinds are 100/200, you raise to 900...the big blind(6,500 in chips) snap calls after it goes fold/fold through the button...you think something smells fishy because your opponent is a fairly tight ROCK, so you decide hes got a BIG hand, but not a monster(AA or KK)...flop comes down 9d Td Js, whoohoo, you flopped a monster double draw...your opponent instantly bets out for 1/3 of the pot...what are you thinking here? what are your hand ranges that your putting him on....heres my take on the situation...
since your opponent is fairly tight, im atleast putting him on KQ or AK, but possibly even TT or JJ, which means he would have you about 2.25 to 1 oddswise if you theoretically got it all in on the flop...i highly doubt he has JJ or TT, because hed probably insta shove or bet the pot, to push you out if your drawing to either the straight or the flush. little does he know you are drawing to both. my honest read in this situation is that he flopped the straight and is looking to get paid off by value betting it, even if the flush hits.
My next question to you is, say you read him for KQ and you put him on the made straight on the flop...if he value bets 800 into a pot of almost 2000, do you call to hit the flush/nut straight, raise it and get him to commit or do you fold it?
lets take a look at the odds here via cardplayer magazine...
even if your opponent flopped the K-hi straight, you are ONLY a 42.73 to 56.67 underdog to win the hand...granted your 8's are dead except for the 8 of diamonds, however this isn't a very porfitable card anyway putting the straight flush out there for your opponent to slow down...
If the hand panned out as JJ/TT/or 99 vs AdQd
you are about a 60-40 dog in all cases...
If your opponent holds AK offsuit, AKo vs AdQd
in this situation you are the favorite 51-46 on the flop
when all was said and done, i let my opponent value bet into me to see the turn and i called cheaply on the flop, the turn brought the 8 of clubs...giving me the Q hi straight, he checked and misplayed his hand, and i checked behind and the 2 of diamonds fell on the river...this put alot of pressure on him to make a decision because there was so many different draws outt here and he didn't get information on the turn from me about anything with the check check move, and he ended up betting half his stack into me on the river, and i requested time, and raised him all in and he snap called with KsQh. My thought about the way he played the turn was that he wanted me to bet because i didn't take too long to reach my decision on the flop...so i thought to myself...NO NO, he wants you to bet, just check and if you miss the flush on the river, you can still call a value bet...if it's not too big...
let me know what you think, sometimes it's like i have x-ray vision...haha
also, the very rare check-behind play by an aggressive player is something to be highly regarded if you really want to see that last card on your big draw and your opponents EXPECT you to play fast...sometimes even YOU have to slow play, it really throws them for a loop...
till next time, good luck and may the 4's be with you...(quads that is! haha)
thats my new saying, im trademarking it
mh
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well mike, you played the hand perfect for you to win. it is easy when you opponent check the turn and put no pressure on you to make a decision to call or fold.
lets say he snap shove on the flop or even the turn do you make a call to chase a ace high flush. for example the home game tourney that we played in that guy went all in on me on the flop and i had the nut flush draw.....is hard to fold in a situation like that.
anyways that guy played weak and you took advantage of it. nice play
i prob. would of played the same way because you dont want to bet out your draw.
anyways nice play MH.
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Hmm, i disagree with some logic here.
Read wise - lets assume your read is spot on. Fairly tight ROCK. This eliminates a lot of calling hands for me.
My range for him to call is 99,TT,JJ,QQ, AQs, AK, nd possibly KQs.
(i havent read what happened yet)
Preflop your now playing with a 2k pot with 9k back.
More often than not id want to get as much in on the flop as possible here. Against trips your getting around the obbs for a semi-bluff squeeze all in to his raise. The fact he is betting out on the flop is normally not an indication he hs KQ, but maybe QQ or possible KK/AA, but for a rock he should surely be reraising you Preflop here with those 2 hands.
So for now, my initial read is QQ, with TT and KQ behind that.
As played, calling the flop bet, the turn helps, but your chances of getting paid off worsened, as no way does he have the 7 to make the low end of the straight. A king is a much better card as it possibly hits his draws for him too, but you obv have the nuts at present, with a draw to the absolute nuts with no chop possible.
As played on the river, just shove instantly, there is no point tanking it as he is way pot commited. He would ossible assume your hand to be AKd or something, but he cant lay down to the flush hitting as you could have so many other hands possible
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I think a tight player as a rock will push on the flop when he flop the nutz because he doesnt want to see the flush draw hit. and in that case the guy played his hand wrong because every will call a 1/3 pot bet to hit a flush specially late in a tourney.
and by pushing with Kq on that flop lets you opponent know that you have it and you win most of the time. so by not pushing he is allowing a AQ of diamonds to stick around.
i like to push when i know i have the nuts on the flop specially late in a tourney.
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The problem with pushing with the straight on the flop is that if he's against a tight player he won't get the call even though he's chasing the nut flush. After calling on the flop he has 5800 chips and the pot is close to 2000 chips. If he pushes you would be getting around 1.2 to 1 to make the call. Even getting close to 1 to 1 odds on the flop, do you want to risk short stacking yourself on a 12 out draw? If you push on the flop and miss your draws, he wins and you are left with 3500 chips.
I think the way it played out was perfect for the hero, so long as he knew where he stood. If you are unsure, you need to find a way to get information in a way that he doesn't feel the urge to push all in.
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basically, it was getting down to crunch time and i wanted to move up in the money without risking elimination...so i smooth called with my draw instead of playing it fast