Great hand to analyze

This is from a friend and he wanted me to have everyone analyze this and tell him what he should've done.
PokerStars Game #, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2009/03/23 14:23:38 ET
Table '150193107 5' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: ilovemyriver (2000 in chips)
Seat 2: enoobs (1980 in chips)
Seat 3: Akislanov (1980 in chips)
Seat 4: novatoj (2040 in chips)
Seat 5: nia5649 (2000 in chips)
Seat 6: MK1177 (2000 in chips)
Seat 7: Sebiforce (2000 in chips)
Seat 8: Grützwurst78 (2000 in chips)
Seat 9: mystery2000 (2000 in chips)
Akislanov: posts small blind 10
novatoj: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ilovemyriver [Qd Qh]
nia5649: folds
MK1177: folds
Sebiforce: folds
Grützwurst78: folds
mystery2000: folds
ilovemyriver: raises 40 to 60
enoobs: folds
Akislanov: folds
novatoj: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [Th Qc 8h]
novatoj: checks

I'll start with this. You have to bet this, and bet it big. This is a terrible raise preflop. Only 2x BB which gives the possibility of a hand like J9 to call or a hand like 910.
Not to meantion we have the possibility of a flush draw out there.
Ughhhhh so many things to tear apart in this hand.
First of all lets say he called with a 9 in his hand and now has the open ended straight draw.
The odds of him winning the pot are
Actually lets give him the worst possible hand without having the straight already which would be the 7h9h.
The probabilities of you winning the hand with top set now is only
59.39%
This is what is wrong with underbetting preflop!!!!!
I dont know how to stress this enough!
You cannot underbet a big pair because then you are inviting people to suck out on you. SO many things wrong with this hand.....but now that we're stuck in this situation we have to BET BIG.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by $o$o$ucce$$ful

I'll start with this. You have to bet this, and bet it big. This is a terrible raise preflop. Only 2x BB which gives the possibility of a hand like J9 to call or a hand like 910.
Not to meantion we have the possibility of a flush draw out there.
Ughhhhh so many things to tear apart in this hand.
First of all lets say he called with a 9 in his hand and now has the open ended straight draw.
The odds of him winning the pot are
Actually lets give him the worst possible hand without having the straight already which would be the 7h9h.
The probabilities of you winning the hand with top set now is only
59.39%
This is what is wrong with underbetting preflop!!!!!
I dont know how to stress this enough!
You cannot underbet a big pair because then you are inviting people to suck out on you. SO many things wrong with this hand.....but now that we're stuck in this situation we have to BET BIG.

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Dear god, this is not a good way to go.

1 - 3x BB is fine. raising to 60 from 20 is standard.
2 - You have top set.
3 - Yes you have to bet this flop. There is 130 in the pot, so im a fan of around 100 here. 3/4 of the pot is enough.

4 - The villain here may well have a draw, or a straight, or whatever, but you will have outs to negate any possible winning hand he has.
5 - If i was 60% to win a hand all in with top set, then i am all in. 60% = favourite. Nuff said.
6 - Underbetting? 3x BB isnt underbetting ( i cannot say that enough)

IMO the flop raise is fine, and the flop isnt great but it gives us a chance to stack the opponent on a draw or someting.

Now say we bet 100 and he raises, we push this every time. We are 90% of the time ahead, and if behind, we have many outs to win with, 7 so far, and 10 on the river.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by eejit101

Dear god, this is not a good way to go.

1 - 3x BB is fine. raising to 60 from 20 is standard.
2 - You have top set.
3 - Yes you have to bet this flop. There is 130 in the pot, so im a fan of around 100 here. 3/4 of the pot is enough.

4 - The villain here may well have a draw, or a straight, or whatever, but you will have outs to negate any possible winning hand he has.
5 - If i was 60% to win a hand all in with top set, then i am all in. 60% = favourite. Nuff said.
6 - Underbetting? 3x BB isnt underbetting ( i cannot say that enough)

IMO the flop raise is fine, and the flop isnt great but it gives us a chance to stack the opponent on a draw or someting.

Now say we bet 100 and he raises, we push this every time. We are 90% of the time ahead, and if behind, we have many outs to win with, 7 so far, and 10 on the river.

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You contradict yourself so much. You say we cant call all in with a lot of outs but yet we can put our stack in the middle if we're beat only to count on the outs we have? 7 outs is NOT alot of outs and never will be considered alot of outs.

first off, im going to have to agree with eejit here, if the guy raises all in on the flop on a draw, im still calling with top set, bc you will still pair the board somehow about 30% of the time...if he has J9 oh well he had you, but why get your money in on a flop like this personally, im betting about half the pot, if he calls and another card to fill the flush or str8 comes, u check it down, if he shoves, you let it go, big whoop...if he value bets it, you call...if he bets 3/4 of the pot, you probably fold unless hes a LAG player then id consider calling

We can call all in because we do not know he has us beat. Im saying worst case is he has the straight. More thn likely he doesnt, and i was coutning our redraw outs.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by eejit101

We can call all in because we do not know he has us beat. Im saying worst case is he has the straight. More thn likely he doesnt, and i was coutning our redraw outs.

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Ok i see what you mean now. GOod points

Ok,

This is the 2nd hand of a tournament so NO ONE has a read on any one. The only possible reads you might have is from prior experience, but that may or may not be valid. Using information gained late in a tournament isn't very valid for early in a tournament, seeing as playing styles change through a tournament.

If I was holding the Q's, I would bet 115. It's something odd, that isn't a "preset" betting number. It shows my opponent that I like the flop and thought about how much to bet to either bluff him off or extract as much as possible. By betting almost pot, I've started to take away the odds my opponent needs to chase his draw. Now, if I get reraised I need to decide how much I want to commit to this hand this early in the tournament. If I feel I'm ahead and want to commit most of my stack, then I do it now. I don't want to let another card come off and allow him to complete his draw, if he hasn't done so already.

The other side of the coin is, it's the 2ND HAND. I don't see losing my buy in this early in the tournament on a semi bad flop with top set. It's something to consider when deciding to call an all in raise. Mind you this particular tournament is "cheap" but we need to play every tournament like it's for $1,000,000.

EEJIT should be loving these posts! Poker hands are his type of threads!!!! I like stippers myself!!!

In this case you have the 2nd nuts....name the last time you folded the 2nd nuts on the flop with any kind of redraw???? common one hand in the deck beats you i would shove this hand about 90% of the time unless i am absolulty positive the opponenet has j9...aka he shows me it straight up or hes a total nit and only shoves the nuts

j9 is a possibility he is BB..... and did come in for 3 times bet ...im gonna say our friend(a friend of yours is a friend of mine) with three qs with a heart is still not real confident (man i would have bet 200 preflop)... i need to know if he has the j9 or the hearts so Im going to bet out here at least pot bet plus im going 200 (what i should have bet preflop)....so im now one tenth committed and asking the same....J9 guy will double that bet...kj hearts is calling(wanting more) and Kh Jo is backin out.....What is our guy gonna do now tho???

Hey eejit throw some numbers out baby ..you know i want em...ya know i need em..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by woohoo sue

j9 is a possibility he is BB..... and did come in for 3 times bet ...im gonna say our friend(a friend of yours is a friend of mine) with three qs with a heart is still not real confident (man i would have bet 200 preflop)... i need to know if he has the j9 or the hearts so Im going to bet out here at least pot bet plus im going 200 (what i should have bet preflop)....so im now one tenth committed and asking the same....J9 guy will double that bet...kj hearts is calling(wanting more) and Kh Jo is backin out.....What is our guy gonna do now tho???

Hey eejit throw some numbers out baby ..you know i want em...ya know i need em..

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Regarding the bold bit.... 200??????? The blinds are 10/20. You want to raise to 10x BBs with QQ??????

Please dont ever do that.


And numbers.............

Against all possible calling hands from the BB your 85.5% to win this hand at the river. And are 98% ahead right now.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by eejit101

Regarding the bold bit.... 200??????? The blinds are 10/20. You want to raise to 10x BBs with QQ??????

Please dont ever do that.


And numbers.............

Against all possible calling hands from the BB your 85.5% to win this hand at the river. And are 98% ahead right now.

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how about 79 of heart EEJ? I would call that out of the big blind for only 40 more and flop the straight draw as well as the flush draw so probably only behind 60/40.