Weak Draws In Holdem

Evaluating a drawing hand in hold 'em is much more complex than it first seems. Simply classifying your draw as an open-ended straight draw, flush draw, or gutshot is usually not enough. In this essay we will examine two factors that beginning players rarely consider when playing a straight or flush draw: tainted outs (and redraws) and one-card draws. The big theme of this essay is that when you are on a draw, you MUST consider the chances of hitting your hand and still losing.

Tainted Outs and Redraws

When you are considering playing a drawing hand, it is important to look at whether any of your "outs" are not really good for you. For example, you have Q-J of hearts on a board of K-T-3 with two clubs and a spade. How many outs do you have? The beginning player would say eight. However, if an opponent holds a club draw, this hurts you in two big ways. First, you have only six outs instead of eight, which reduces your chances of winning by a full 25%. (The ace and 9 of clubs are known as 'tainted outs', since they will not help you win the pot.) Second, when you do hit one of your six outs on the turn, you will still lose the pot about 20% of the time when a club rivers. (Hitting your draw and losing to another draw which hits on the river is called a 'redraw'.) Thus, this hand is much weaker than the same Q-J on a K-T-3 rainbow flop, and it may need to be folded, especially if it two bets to you on the flop (even more so because many players will bet or raise the flop with flush draws, thus indicating this hand is out against you.)

The same consideration should enter your mind when considering playing a draw on a paired board. Here you must also account for the possibility that you are drawing dead to a made full house, and even if you hit your draw on the turn your opponent will redraw (assuming he has trips) over 20% of the time. If the board contains both a pair and a flush draw, you need to be getting huge odds to play a straight draw on the flop.

When you are likely to have tainted outs, you must look for better odds to call a bet. I would call a bet with an open-ended straight on a rainbow flop given 4:1 odds, but on a two-suited board I would look for 6:1, and on a paired board I want even better odds than that for either a straight or flush draw. As for a tainted gutshot, I would virtually always fold it.

One-Card Draws

Most decent hold 'em players quickly grasp the concept that it is not the value of their five-card hand that counts; it is the value of their hand compared to the texture of the board. For example, you rarely see a person play 8-3 on a Q-Q-8 flop as aggressively as they will play Q-8 on a Q-8-3 flop, although some maniacs will do this.

For some reason, most players do not extend this philosophy to drawing hands. There is an important distinction to be made between two-card draws and one-card draws. An example of a one-card draw is Q-6 on a board of 8-7-5, where only one card is part of the draw. A two card drawing hand might be something like 7-6 on a flop of 8-5-2.

So what is so bad about one-card draws? After all, they have the same chance of making as a two-card draw, right? While this is true, it neglects to mention three very important concepts. With a one card draw:

- Your chances of splitting the pot if you hit a one-card straight draw are quite high. This rarely happens with a two-card draw.
- You will get much less action than with a two-card draw if you hit your hand, because the opponents can see four parts to a straight or flush on board and will be scared out of betting.
- Your one-card draw will rarely be to the nuts (unless it is the nut flush draw or a draw to an ace-high straight), so you can lose additional money if someone hits a better hand than yours.

What do these three factors add up to? All of them reduce the amount of money you will win if you hit your hand, so you will need significantly better odds to call with a one-card draw than a two-card draw. With flush draws, when there are three to a suit on board, I would not even play a flush draw for a bet unless I'm hitting to the nut or second nut flush. With a one-card straight draw, I would never play a hand like A-4 on a 7-6-5 flop, since it is too easy to lose if I hit an 8. If I did have a hand like A-5 on a 7-6-4 board, I would look for about 6:1 odds to call, even though I would usually play a two card draw for 4:1. I don't think you should ever play a one-card gutshot unless the pot was absolutely huge.

Note: When you have a one-card draw and your outs are tainted, it is probably best to muck your hand just about every time. The two factors combined will reduce your chances of winning a big pot very sharply.

The bottom line

Many draws in hold 'em are not really as strong as they seem. When you have outs that may not be good, or only a one-card draw, look for better than normal odds before calling a bet.

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