Belmont Analysis

[klinkman]

To start off, I'll talk about this race in general and the track it's ran on, some thoughts on mile and a half races, and why running all 3 legs of the triple crown is so grueling.

The Belmont stakes is called the test of champions for a reason. The race is long, grueling and requires a talented horse and rider. Belmont park is called the "big sandy" for a reason as well. It has this deep sandy dirt that some horses don't like and other relish. Lemon Drop Kid loved the surface the year he took the crown away from Charismatic. An angle to play is to look for horses that have run well over the Belmont surface, and horses who's parents have run well over the surface.

One major thing to remember is that the Belmont stakes does not favor deep closers. Remember this. Deep closers do not need more time to catch the leaders. They need faster fractions to wear out the horses near the pace. No horse has run the last 5 runnings of the Belmont from further back than 3rd at the top of the stretch. Generally, there is no pressure on the lead horse, and the race sets up like it did last year where the lead horse holds on. Remember, Alydar and Affirmed ran neck and neck in front for the last 6 furlongs because there was no pace.

Deep closers win races when the pace is really fast. The best example I can think of for this was the year Monarchos won the Kentucky Derby. The track was packed very fast, and Songandaprayer was a true sprinter running in the derby pretty much because he could. He set the fastest fractions in Kentucky Derby history, and tired out all the stalkers. Talented horses like Point Given just faded in the stretch and Monarchos came out of nowhere to win in near record time. That's what needs to happen for a deep closer to win a race like this.

Another thing to consider is how grueling 3 races in 5 weeks is for horses. Horses have become both faster and more fragile in recent years. Whether that is due to inbreeding, coddling young horses, or whatever else people say, it's here and it must be accounted for. Because horses have become so much more fragile, it's very likely that they will not run up to their best after 2 big races in a month. That's why a lot of trainers skip the Preakness and train their horse for the Belmont. This only affects 2 of the horses in the race, and one is a toss anyway, but a very close look at Mine That Bird is needed in this race.

[taylovesthebeatles]

I look forward to reading your analysis of all the horses. I am still sad Rachel Alexandra isn't running again, but I applaud her trainers and owners for taking care of the horse's needs first. People really should look at that when they criticise the sport. I don't think anyone could care more about horses than these trainers and jockeys. What's the latest on Calvin Borel? Has he been asked to ride Mine That Bird again?

[klinkman]

I look forward to reading your analysis of all the horses. I am still sad Rachel Alexandra isn't running again, but I applaud her trainers and owners for taking care of the horse's needs first. People really should look at that when they criticise the sport. I don't think anyone could care more about horses than these trainers and jockeys. What's the latest on Calvin Borel? Has he been asked to ride Mine That Bird again?
Calvin will be riding Mine That Bird on Saturday. He has already guaranteed victory. We all remember what happened the last time someone guarateed victory in the Belmont though right?

[taylovesthebeatles]

Calvin will be riding Mine That Bird on Saturday. He has already guaranteed victory. We all remember what happened the last time someone guarateed victory in the Belmont though right?

Yes, yes we do. Your desktop reminds me every day!

Failmont Stakes.

[Sassy12U]

Is it true that they give steroids to horses before the races?

If so, that is really sad. I would hate to be an animal forced to have steroids in my system and then race. It's just like that football player who made dogs fight. That is so wrong and hurtful to the animal.

[klinkman]

Is it true that they give steroids to horses before the races?

If so, that is really sad. I would hate to be an animal forced to have steroids in my system and then race. It's just like that football player who made dogs fight. That is so wrong and hurtful to the animal.
Steroids have been banned in all of the states that run triple crown races, as well as Califonia and I believe Florida, and most other states have either banned them or are in the process of passing the ban.

Lasix is still allowed. That is the issue that needs to be addressed now.

[eejit101]

Question - Whats the odds on this race for the contenders?


Also - when is it?

[Pokerkitty6]

I love the fact that you love horses!!!! You seem to know what you're talking about. I like Minethat bird, but so does everyone else. Who would you put with him? What kind of bets would you make to get the best return of your money? What do you think about Chocolate Candy and Mr. Hotstuff? I love Mr. Hotstuff because he is a young horse who just seems to love the track. He runs out of gate and doesn't look back. I'm not sure if he has enough experience....Chocolate Candy has made some money...could there be more.? Lemon Drop's kid, Charitable man seems like a good bet too. As always for me, too many horses and too many ways to bet!!!! The Derby, Preakness, and the Belmont are like holidays for me, I love them!!!! These are days I set aside for myself. I make sure I am somewhere I can watch them and bet on them at the same time!!! I always pre-plan my party and take the next day off! I can't wait!!!!!! Looking forward to everyone's responses, even if you have never bet on a horse...maybe you just like the name. Let me know. Will we have the first triple crown jockey???????

[eejit101]

Personally straight up bets are better returns.

However weirdly ive made more money on tricasts, especially here as if you bet a tricast in WilliamHill, and you hit it in order than you have them to finish, you get double the win. If its the three u picked in any oder you get the standard win (which in a 12 horse race is normally pretty big)

[klinkman]

Personally straight up bets are better returns.

However weirdly ive made more money on tricasts, especially here as if you bet a tricast in WilliamHill, and you hit it in order than you have them to finish, you get double the win. If its the three u picked in any oder you get the standard win (which in a 12 horse race is normally pretty big)
1 Chocolate Candy (KY )
Garrett Gomez / Jerry Hollendorfer 10/1
2 Dunkirk (KY )
John Velazquez / Todd Pletcher 4/1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff (KY )
Edgar Prado / Eoin Harty 15/1
4 Summer Bird (KY )
Kent Desormeaux / Tim Ice 12/1
5 Luv Gov (KY )
Miguel Mena / D. Lukas 20/1
6 Charitable Man (VA )
Alan Garcia / Kiaran McLaughlin 3/1
7 Mine That Bird (KY )
Calvin Borel / Bennie Woolley, Jr. 2/1
8 Flying Private (KY )
Julien Leparoux / D. Lukas 12/1
9 Miner's Escape (KY )
Jose Lezcano / Nicholas Zito 15/1
10 Brave Victory (KY )
Rajiv Maragh / Nicholas Zito 15/1

These are the morning line odds at Belmont. I expect the longshots to end up between 20 and 30 to 1, and the rest to stay where they are, with Mine maybe going down to 3-2

Edit: I actually think straight up win bets are not the way to go this race, but I'll discuss what I think later.
Edit 2: The race is this Saturday. Coverage starts at 5 eastern, race is at 6:27 Local. You can find all this information, past performances and more here: http://www.ntra.com/races.aspx?id=37081&section=races

[taylovesthebeatles]

Is it true that they give steroids to horses before the races?

If so, that is really sad. I would hate to be an animal forced to have steroids in my system and then race. It's just like that football player who made dogs fight. That is so wrong and hurtful to the animal.

They still use some performance type drugs, but this years Kentucky Derby was the first Derby to be steroid-free. They're trying to crack down on this issue a lot, but the problem is different states and countries have different rules, and it's very difficult to get a sweeping change like this in the racehorsing industry.

[taylovesthebeatles]

Question - Whats the odds on this race for the contenders?


Also - when is it?

The race is June 6th. I'm not sure of the odds at this moment, but I'm sure klinkman will post them. They tend to fluctuate as the race nears of course.

[eejit101]

7, 2, 1 trifecta sounds good to me.

[taylovesthebeatles]

7, 2, 1 trifecta sounds good to me.

I think Mr. Hot Stuff has the edge over Dunkirk in this one. Otherwise I like your trifecta I think.

[klinkman]

I am not at all a fan of this trifecta.

[klinkman]

This is the horse that everyone but me seems to like. Sorry guys, I see an outclassed closer, who will get no pace and may not like the surface. He's really not beaten anyone, except tired horses in the derby. All of his strong performances have been on polytrack, and Belmont is way different than the pro-ride at Santa Anita. And this horse is getting bet down something fierce. Avoid this horse, and bet on the horses that are unduly high because of the action on him.

[klinkman]

Yesterday I would have told you to absolutely bet him to win and key him on your exactas and trifectas. Then the track got wet. Dunkirk absolutely did not like the wet-fast track in the Kentucky Derby. He might not like the track today either. That being said, he's up to 6-1 in the betting, mostly because of all the money on Mine That Bird and Chocolate Candy. So he might be worth a bet after all. I won't be betting him in the Win pool, but he will be in my exacta tickets.

[klinkman]

I'm still not a fan of his. He's not that fast, I know you can toss the derby, but his other races are lackluster as well, with only the 3rd in the Santa Anita being decent, and that race keeps looking weaker and weaker in retrospect, and the Sham stakes was underwhelming as well. He is another horse where most of his starts are on polytrack. I know you can't just toss a horse just because his preps are on polytrack, class there is class anywhere-but lack of class there is lack of class everywhere. And Mr. Hot Stuff has never shown anything that suggests he can hang with this class.

[klinkman]

Like a worse version of Chocolate Candy. Just another deep closer who will get no pace and has not won a big race. I just see nothing to like about this horse today.

Luv Gov: How many times did it take for him to break his madien? And how did he do in the Preakness? I think you'll agree with me when I toss him.

[klinkman]

He likes this course. That's a huge factor given the uniqueness of the Belmont course. His dad won the Belmont Stakes. That's a huge factor given how long this race is. He's coming off a win and 2 improving races. He will need to improve a little bit to hit the quality of these horses. I think he can, and that's why he's my pick to win, and will be one of the 3 on top of my exactas.

[klinkman]

Here is an interesting figure-His Preakness 2nd was a 119 equibase speed figure, whereas his Kentucky Derby win was only a 115. Now figures certainly dont tell the whole story-Flying Private was given a 115 for his 4th in the Preakness, but that race certainly was not as good as Mine That Bird's Derby Win. No other horse in the race has run figures even close to those though. Even without much pace, if Mine That Bird Runs his race, I don't think anyone can catch him.

But here is the issue-Mine That Bird may not run his race. The triple crown is grueling and running both previous races, and running that big and that hard, had to have taken a lot out of Mine that Bird.

He's been bet down to Even money in the win pool. I don't think I like him that much. He is in my exactas, but I would advise against betting him to win.

[klinkman]

Flying Private ran huge in the preakness, and finished 4th. I just can't see him menacing today. He is just a cut below the rest.

Miner's Escape took 6 tries to break his maiden, and the Fedrico Tesio stakes was quite weak this year. He is a cut below as well.

Both of these horses are tosses to me.

[freeringo]

My exacta box is 3 4 9.

My favorite numbers.

I hope they win.

I wonder what horses I picked.

ahhh

Edgar Kent and Jose

[klinkman]

I think he has more of a chance than the last 2 I mentioned, but I still don't really like him. His last couple of races have been mediocre against mediocre competition. He needs a big improvement to be able to get into the mix. He does like the track which is a plus. I still think I toss him though.

[klinkman]

I exacta box 2-6-7 and and put 5$ on Dunkirk and Charitable Man.

[taylovesthebeatles]

The more I hear about him, the more I like Charitable Man as well, but I still don't think you can completely discount Chocolate Candy. Mine That Bird is still somewhat of a sentimental pick just because I want to see Calvin go for the jockey triple crown, but I'm mainly just sad Rachel Alexandra isn't running. If it's best for her to not run though then I'm all for that.

[PANAMHIEST]

Personally i am going for charitable man. This is a stronger, but smaller horse i believe will have the endurance to outlast some of the bigger horses. I am a bit concerned with miners escape and mine that bird, as they too are both good small endurance horses, but charitable man is my man, and i know charitable man will have the stregnth and endurance, plus the heart at the end to take home the triple crown.

[PANAMHIEST]

HOLY CHIT did you guys just see what diamondrella did? That was ***ing awesome and all the way from the back of the pack.

[twissisa]

I wonder if they are putting up odds in Vegas for the "Borel Triple Crown"?. Sure they are, you can bet on anything in Vegas, right?. Anyway, I think Mind That Bird will win this race, he seems to like to step it up a notch at the very end. So i bet the trifecta 7/38. Prolly should have put him with everyone. The odds on hitting the superfecta should be pretty good with only 10 running. Think I will box 4 of them. And I put some money on Luv Gov just in case............. to win. Good luck everyone with your bets:)

[Lilred36]

Klink I really wish you would do these a lil earlier, did ok with Musket man, but now I am on my own wish me luck!!!!!!!!

[twissisa]

Well, goes to show ya how much I know:oops:. My sister did hit the $1 superfecta box, she won half which amounted to $400 some dollars for a $24 bet. Anyone else do any good? Congrats if ya did:).

[Pokerkitty6]

I hit the trifecta which paid $295. I spent $80 on many different combinations and one paid off!!! I love the horses!!!!

[eejit101]

I hit the trifecta which paid $295. I spent $80 on many different combinations and one paid off!!! I love the horses!!!!

You realise that is -EV in the long run right?

[Pokerkitty6]

As long as I double my money, I'm a winner!!! Looking forward to the next win.

[klinkman]

You realise that is -EV in the long run right?
Not if you do it right. Eliminating all the horses who will never hit the board then boxing the rest in trifectas can be a profitable strategy. You just have to be careful about who you toss.

[eejit101]

Exactly!

I saw someone do it once. Left a decent pick of 7 horses. Covered em all.

He ended up net losing $45 cos the 3 favourites came in 1/2/3

[twissisa]

I hit the trifecta which paid $295. I spent $80 on many different combinations and one paid off!!! I love the horses!!!!

Very nice Pokerkitty. I usually only bet the horses for the Triple Crown. I do however love betting on the greyhounds. Usually go a couple times a year in the fall. They also have a poker room there that I need to go check out. Congrats again:)

[klinkman]

Exactly!

I saw someone do it once. Left a decent pick of 7 horses. Covered em all.

He ended up net losing $45 cos the 3 favourites came in 1/2/3
If the favorites ran 1-2-3 every time there'd be no need for covering the other horses lol.

If you do it right it is certainly a profitable betting strategy. Thats even if you lose a small amount when the favorites go 1-2-3.

[eejit101]

Ok.

Well, more horse tips are appreciated, and ill see if i can do a big load of box trifectas next time.